Gent vs Anderlecht Prediction: Home win 38% (25 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League25 October 2026Planet Group Arena, Gent12°11,8 mm39 km/h

Läs på svenska

GentBalanced & physical

AnderlechtPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Gent (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Anderlecht @ 3.31 (+4 %)

1 · Gent 38%X 30%31% Anderlecht · 2

38%

30%

31%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Gent vs Anderlecht (Belgian Pro League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Gent win 38%, draw 30%, Anderlecht win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Gent 1.39, Anderlecht 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Gent or draw 69%, Anderlecht or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Gent – Anderlecht

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Gent's recent unbeaten run of nine league matches underscores their stability and defensive prowess. They are a team that values consistency, and this is reflected in their ability to score in each of their last nine games. On the other side, Anderlecht's possession-heavy, high-pressing game has seen them secure three consecutive wins, indicating a team that can impose itself on opponents. However, Gent's balanced and physical style should not be underestimated, especially given their slight edge in expected goals against (xGA) at 0.78 compared to Anderlecht's 0.82.

Anderlecht historically have the upper hand in this fixture, winning six of the last ten matchups. Yet, Gent's current form, combined with their 22 points in the league against Anderlecht's 16, suggests a possible swing in the balance of power. The model gives Gent a slight edge with a 38% probability of winning, aligning closely with their unbeaten streak and higher league positioning.

The expected goals numbers suggest a tight contest: Gent's xG per game stands at 1.3, slightly trailing Anderlecht's 1.6. This, coupled with expected rain, points towards a moderate-scoring affair. With over 2.5 goals only at 47% probability, the prudent play leans towards the under, especially with the weather likely to suppress attacking flow.

Gent's 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory appear as the most probable outcomes. The 1-1 scoreline leads the model at 13%, hinting at a balanced encounter where both teams find the net. While the head-to-head favors Anderlecht, the current form and statistical nuances give Gent the subtle nod at home.

Gent

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #13xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Tiago AraujoLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.22
Maksim PaskotsiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Siebe Van der HeydenCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Anderlecht

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #2xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Marco KanaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Tristan DegreefLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.30
Ludwig AugustinssonLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Gent – Anderlecht

Predicted score matrix

Anderlecht →

Gent →

0–08.2%

0–18.7%

0–25.3%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.5%

1–113.0%

1–27.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.5%

2–18.7%

2–25.1%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.5%

3–14.1%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,39–1,16

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.83

Over 2,547%

@2.01

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Gent or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Gent or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Josué Yamir Vergara Ortega to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Mihajlo Cvetković to score30%
Enric Llansana Beuse to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Anderlecht31% probability@3.31PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gent	X	2 · Anderlecht
Betsafe	2.35	3.20	3.05
LeoVegas	2.30	3.25	3.00
Nordicbet	2.35	3.20	3.05
Pinnacle	2.30	3.16	EV+ 4% 3.31

Odds updated 24 Oct, 08:21

Odds movement

1-1 %

43 %38 %

2.33 → 2.30

X+1 %

33 %28 %

3.14 → 3.16

2+1 %

32 %27 %

3.27 → 3.31

Over 2,50 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 2.01

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

10 matches

Gent 2Draw 2Anderlecht 6

Goals: 8–21 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

RSC Anderlecht dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 10 meetings.
KAA Gent are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
KAA Gent have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
RSC Anderlecht come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gent

Anderlecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gent (15–4)

Anderlecht (9–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gent

Anderlecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gent

Anderlecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gent	Anderlecht
Points	22	16
xPoints	14.9	11.9
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	0.78	0.82
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.16

Playing style	Gent	Anderlecht
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.42	0.73
xT per match	0.93	1.8
xTA per match	0.89	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	24	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.29
Entries into the box per match	11	21
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.8	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	399	503
Passes against per match	457	290
Switches of play per match	39.7	24.4
Long balls per match	45	27

Set pieces	Gent	Anderlecht
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	4.4	6.8
Corners against per match	4.2	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.35

Other	Gent	Anderlecht
Throw-in control	0.68	0.8

The goalkeepers	Davy Roef (Gent)	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)
Saves	22	23
Save %	85%	79%
xG prevented	56%	70%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gent

Fixtures, form & tips

Anderlecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gent vs Anderlecht according to our model?

The model gives Gent a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gent 38%, draw 30%, Anderlecht 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Gent vs Anderlecht?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Gent and 1.16 for Anderlecht, 2.55 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Gent or draw (1X) 69%, Anderlecht or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.