01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Royal Charleroi to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Belgian Pro LeagueBosuilstadion, Antwerpen10°21,0 mm38 km/h
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Royal AntwerpCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Royal CharleroiPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Royal Charleroi (52%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.75 (+12 %)
Royal Antwerp vs Royal Charleroi · Belgian Pro League
1 · Royal Antwerp 23%X 25%52% Royal Charleroi · 2
23%
25%
52%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Royal Antwerp vs Royal Charleroi (Belgian Pro League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Royal Antwerp win 23%, draw 25%, Royal Charleroi win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Royal Antwerp 1.30, Royal Charleroi 1.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Royal Antwerp or draw 48%, Royal Charleroi or draw 77%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Royal Antwerp – Royal Charleroi
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Royal Charleroi have made a habit of dominating their clashes against Royal Antwerp, claiming victory in five of the last seven encounters since 2023. This historical edge can't be ignored, though the sample is small; the visitors have consistently outperformed their hosts. Anticipate a continuation of this pattern as Charleroi arrive on the back of a three-match winning streak, while Antwerp are mired in a five-game losing skid.
Form points sharply in Charleroi's favor. Their attacking prowess has been evident, scoring in ten consecutive league matches, and they currently lead the expected points (xPoints) metric by a notable margin over Antwerp. Meanwhile, the home side's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.1 expected goals against (xGA) per match. The expected goals (xG) figures underline the disparity: Antwerp at 1.3 versus Charleroi's 1.9, suggesting a significant away advantage.
Given the weather forecast of 21.0 mm of rain, which typically suppresses scoring, one might expect a dampened attack. However, the over 2.5 goals market is still favored at a strong 63% probability. With Charleroi’s possession control approach, they may adapt better to the conditions than Antwerp’s counter-attacking and crossing style.
For punters looking for value, the over 4.5 goals market offers an enticing proposition. Priced at 4.87 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, the model suggests this outcome holds a 23% chance, giving an 11% edge. Alternatively, the over 3.5 goals, priced at 2.66 with Betsafe, carries a 41% probability, providing a 9% edge. With Charleroi's attacking form and Antwerp's defensive struggles, these high-goal scenarios hold substantial betting appeal.
Royal AntwerpForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #17xT #9xP/match #16Points #13
Key players
- Yuto TsunashimaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
- Eran TuypensLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Rein Van HeldenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Royal CharleroiForm WLWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #5xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Cheick KeitaCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
- Aiham OusouCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
- Massamba SowCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Royal Antwerp – Royal Charleroi
Predicted score matrix
Royal Charleroi →
Royal Antwerp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–17.3%
0–27.3%
0–34.8%
0–4+3.6%
1
1–04.8%
1–110.1%
1–29.6%
1–36.2%
1–4+4.7%
2
2–03.3%
2–16.4%
2–26.2%
2–34.0%
2–4+3.1%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.8%
3–22.7%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.2%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-27%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,30–1,95
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.18
Over 2,563%
@1.73EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Royal Charleroi to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Aurélien Scheidler to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Aurélien Scheidler to score32%
- Amine Boukamir to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.541% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- Over 3.541% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
- Over 4.523% probability@4.87BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Royal Antwerp | X | 2 · Royal Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| LeoVegas | 3.95 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Nordicbet | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 4.15 | EV+ 4% 4.17 | 1.79 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
26 %21 %
3.94 → 4.15
X+2 %
26 %21 %
4.08 → 4.17
20 %
56 %51 %
1.79 → 1.79
Over 2,5+3 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.73
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesRoyal Antwerp 1Draw 1Royal Charleroi 5
Goals: 5–11 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Key facts
- RSC Charleroi dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
- Royal Antwerp FC have lost 5 in a row.
- RSC Charleroi come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- RSC Charleroi have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Royal Antwerp
Royal Charleroi
Royal Antwerp (12–20)
Royal Charleroi (16–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Royal Antwerp
Royal Charleroi
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Royal Antwerp
Royal Charleroi
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Royal Antwerp | Royal Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 21 |
| xPoints | 8 | 13.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Royal Antwerp | Royal Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 356 | 314 |
| Switches of play per match | 21 | 41.7 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 46 |
| Set pieces | Royal Antwerp | Royal Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| Other | Royal Antwerp | Royal Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Taishi Brandon Nozawa (Royal Antwerp) | Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 19 |
| Save % | 61% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Kortrijk – Mechelen23 October 2026
- OH Leuven – Lommel24 October 2026
- Westerlo – Beveren24 October 2026
- La Louvière – Zulte Waregem24 October 2026
- Genk – Standard Liège25 October 2026
- Club Brugge – Sint-Truiden25 October 2026
- Gent – Anderlecht25 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise – Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Royal Antwerp vs Royal Charleroi according to our model?
The model gives Royal Charleroi a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Antwerp 23%, draw 25%, Royal Charleroi 52%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Royal Antwerp vs Royal Charleroi?
The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Royal Antwerp and 1.95 for Royal Charleroi, 3.25 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Royal Antwerp or draw (1X) 48%, Royal Charleroi or draw (X2) 77% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.