OH Leuven vs Lommel Prediction: Home win 44% (24 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League24 October 2026Den Dreef, Leuven9°18,9 mm34 km/h

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OH LeuvenLow block & direct

LommelCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · OH Leuven (44%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+17 %)

1 · OH Leuven 44%X 29%27% Lommel · 2

44%

29%

27%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for OH Leuven vs Lommel (Belgian Pro League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): OH Leuven win 44%, draw 29%, Lommel win 27%. Expected goals (xG): OH Leuven 1.55, Lommel 1.18. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: OH Leuven or draw 73%, Lommel or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: OH Leuven – Lommel

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

With OH Leuven given a 44% chance of victory by the model, the hosts are the marginal favorites in this Belgian Pro League clash against Lommel. However, the visitors have amassed more points this season, 11 to Leuven's 5, and boast a slightly better xPoints tally of 9.8 compared to Leuven's 7.6. This hints at a potential mismatch between actual results and underlying performances, creating a narrative tension in the expected outcomes.

The expected goals tell a nuanced story. Leuven's xG of 1.2 per match just edges Lommel's 1.1, but their porous defense, allowing 2.1 xGA per match, is a concern. Lommel, with 1.7 xGA, can exploit this defensive fragility, especially with their counter-attack and crossing style. The most probable scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 12%, aligns with a tight match where both teams find the net, supported by a 55% likelihood for both teams to score.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in unders. Amidst the expected rain, which dampens goal-scoring, the under 2.5 goals market presents value at odds of 2.32 with Betsafe, offering a 13% edge. Though the low-scoring prediction is speculative, it's a calculated play against the elements and Leuven's defensive lapses.

OH Leuven

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #6xP/match #18Points #15

Key players

Wouter GeorgeRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.31
Jamie LawrenceCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Siebe SchrijversLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12

Lommel

Form WLLDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #18xP/match #13Points #9

Key players

Lucas SchoofsCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Jason van DuivenRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Tom ReynersLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: OH Leuven – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

OH Leuven →

0–06.9%

0–17.3%

0–24.5%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.0%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.3%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.1%

3–14.8%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,18

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.32EV+13%

Over 2,551%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance OH Leuven or draw (1X)72%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance OH Leuven or draw (1X)72%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Siebe Schrijvers to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Siebe Schrijvers to score21%
Dries Wouters to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
Under 2.549% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · OH Leuven	X	2 · Lommel
Betsafe	1.88	EV+ 9% 3.80	3.65
LeoVegas	1.92	EV+ 3% 3.60	3.55
Nordicbet	1.88	EV+ 9% 3.80	3.65
Pinnacle	1.90	EV+ 12% 3.91	EV+ 6% 3.87

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.90

X+2 %

27 %22 %

3.85 → 3.91

2+3 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.87

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

OH Leuven

Lommel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

OH Leuven (6–14)

Lommel (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

OH Leuven

Lommel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

OH Leuven

Lommel

The teams in numbers

Performance	OH Leuven	Lommel
Points	5	11
xPoints	7.6	9.8
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	2.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.27

Playing style	OH Leuven	Lommel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.44	0.3
xT per match	1.2	0.64
xTA per match	1.3	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	31	19
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.18
Entries into the box per match	14	9
Entries into the box against	18	20
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	346	348
Passes against per match	382	450
Switches of play per match	26.5	23.3
Long balls per match	37	33

Set pieces	OH Leuven	Lommel
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	3.4	3.7
Corners against per match	8.4	8
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.7	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.55

Other	OH Leuven	Lommel
Throw-in control	0.71	0.68

The goalkeepers	Dani Van Den Heuvel (OH Leuven)	Matthias Pieklak (Lommel)
Saves	21	28
Save %	62%	78%
xG prevented	42%	77%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

OH Leuven

Fixtures, form & tips

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins OH Leuven vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives OH Leuven a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OH Leuven 44%, draw 29%, Lommel 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in OH Leuven vs Lommel?

The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for OH Leuven and 1.18 for Lommel, 2.73 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

OH Leuven or draw (1X) 73%, Lommel or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.