Westerlo vs Beveren Prediction: Home win 46% (24 Oct 2026)

Belgian Pro League24 October 2026Het Kuipje, Westerlo9°23,7 mm27 km/h

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WesterloCounter-attacks & crosses

BeverenBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Westerlo (46%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.75 (+7 %)

1 · Westerlo 46%X 29%25% Beveren · 2

46%

29%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Westerlo vs Beveren (Belgian Pro League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Westerlo win 46%, draw 29%, Beveren win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Westerlo 1.94, Beveren 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Westerlo or draw 75%, Beveren or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Westerlo – Beveren

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Westerlo's four-game win streak sets the stage for their clash against Beveren, highlighting a pattern of success that the hosts look to extend. The numbers suggest Westerlo's attacking prowess, especially with their 1.94 expected goals per match, could be decisive. Despite the rain forecast, which could temper the scoring, the model still leans towards a game with over 2.5 goals, emphasizing a potentially dynamic encounter.

Beveren's balanced and physical style might struggle against Westerlo's counter-attacking and crossing tactics. The visitors, with a lower expected goals rate of 1.17, will need to capitalize on their physicality to disrupt Westerlo's rhythm. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident in the 2.0 expected goals against per match, suggesting gaps that Westerlo can exploit.

The head-to-head data is sparse and thus less reliable, meaning the focus rests on recent form and team profiles. Westerlo's edge in both points and xPoints further backs their favored status. Their capacity to both create and concede chances aligns with the model's 60% probability for over 2.5 goals, though 59% expect both teams to score. The most probable outcomes, 1-1 and 2-1, underline a tight contest with slight home advantage.

While Westerlo's form and statistics suggest they may edge the match, the draw offers an intriguing betting angle. With odds of 3.8 at Betsafe and Nordicbet, punters can find a 9% edge compared to the model's valuation. Those considering a bet might see value in this outcome, especially with the match's competitive balance and weather's dampening effect potentially steering it towards parity.

Westerlo

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #10xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Amando LapageCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Seiji KimuraCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Ibrahim Cheick Junior FofanaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09

Beveren

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #8xP/match #17Points #11

Key players

Yoni GomisCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Christian BrülsCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.29
Jearl MargarithaFxG 0.25 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Westerlo – Beveren

Predicted score matrix

Beveren →

Westerlo →

0–04.8%

0–14.9%

0–23.0%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.4%

1–110.4%

1–25.9%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.4%

3–16.4%

3–23.7%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.1%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-08%
4.1-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,94–1,17

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.56EV+2%

Over 2,560%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Westerlo to win46%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Westerlo to win46%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Norman Jaquy Bassette Van Acker to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Norman Jaquy Bassette Van Acker to score23%
Dante Rigo to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.75PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 3.562% probability@1.68PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.65LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Westerlo	X	2 · Beveren
Betsafe	2.02	EV+ 3% 3.60	3.40
LeoVegas	2.05	EV+ 4% 3.65	3.10
Nordicbet	2.02	EV+ 3% 3.60	3.40
Pinnacle	2.04	EV+ 7% 3.75	3.53

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

48 %43 %

2.06 → 2.04

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.74 → 3.75

2+7 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.53

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

KVC Westerlo come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Westerlo

Beveren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Westerlo (20–17)

Beveren (8–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Westerlo

Beveren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Westerlo

Beveren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Westerlo	Beveren
Points	13	9
xPoints	11.9	7.9
xG per match	1.6	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.49	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.4

Playing style	Westerlo	Beveren
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.47
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	21	27
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	16	17
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.69
Passes per match	393	413
Passes against per match	370	396
Switches of play per match	23.7	29.3
Long balls per match	29	43

Set pieces	Westerlo	Beveren
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.02
Corners per match	3.5	5.4
Corners against per match	5.9	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.43

Other	Westerlo	Beveren
Throw-in control	0.64	0.77

The goalkeepers	Andreas Jungdal (Westerlo)	Johannes Schenk (Beveren)
Saves	24	27
Save %	59%	68%
xG prevented	37%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Westerlo

Fixtures, form & tips

Beveren

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Westerlo vs Beveren according to our model?

The model gives Westerlo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Westerlo 46%, draw 29%, Beveren 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Westerlo vs Beveren?

The model expects 1.94 goals (xG) for Westerlo and 1.17 for Beveren, 3.11 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Westerlo or draw (1X) 75%, Beveren or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.