Genk vs Beveren: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League28 August 2026Cegeka Arena, Genk19°32,4 mm17 km/h

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GenkPossession control

4–0

BeverenBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Genk (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Beveren @ 6.36 (+63 %)

1 · Genk 50%X 24%26% Beveren · 2

50%

24%

26%

Analysis: Genk – Beveren

Marcus Johansson · 26 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The head-to-head analysis between Genk and Beveren is limited by a small sample size, making the current form and expected goals more telling. As we dive into the numbers, Genk's possession-oriented approach contrasts with Beveren's balanced and physical style. This battle of tactics could shape the match's outcome as much as any individual brilliance.

Genk has a slight upper hand with 4 points to Beveren's 3, but the xPoints tell a sharper story: Genk leads 4.8 to Beveren's 2.0. It's a similar pattern with expected goals, where Genk averages 1.9 per match compared to Beveren's 0.8. Defensively, Genk also holds the fort better, conceding an expected 1.1 goals per match against Beveren's leaky 2.4. The possession game of the home side might stifle Beveren, who will need to leverage their physicality to disrupt Genk’s rhythm.

Weather conditions with predicted rain could dampen goal-scoring opportunities, but the model still leans slightly toward over 2.5 goals at 52% probability and both teams finding the net at 54%. Despite the weather, Genk's expected goal tally of 1.70 suggests they might just edge this encounter.

While Genk is favored to win at 50%, the odds for Beveren present a compelling value play. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 6.3 for an away win, there’s a significant 61% edge according to the model’s 26% win probability for Beveren. If you're looking to angle for value, a cautious punt on the visitors might just pay off, despite the statistical edge lying with the hosts.

Genk

Form WDLWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #8xP/match #7Points #9

Key players

Bryan HeynenCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.20
Rafiu Adekunle DurosinmiFxG 0.73 · xT -0.01
Joris KayembeLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16

Beveren

Form LWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #11xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Chris-Emmanuel Dikwama LokesaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.01
Laurent JansRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
Christian BrülsCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.29

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Genk 50% · Draw 24% · Beveren 26%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BeverenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,40fair 17,46-12 %

Miss

Matchresultat - RC GenkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,58fair 6,99-49 %

Miss

Match prediction: Genk – Beveren

Predicted score matrix

Beveren →

Genk →

0–06.6%

0–16.4%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.3%

1–111.7%

1–26.1%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.1%

3–15.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,70–1,07

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.62EV+25%

Over 2,552%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Genk to win50%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Genk to win50%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Konstantinos Karetsas to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Konstantinos Karetsas to score29%
Viktor Luc Boone to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Beveren26% probability@6.36PinnacleEV+63%reference odds
2 · Beveren26% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+61%reference odds
2 · Beveren26% probability@6.30BetssonEV+61%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Genk	X	2 · Beveren
Betsafe	1.45	EV+ 10% 4.50	EV+ 61% 6.30
Betsson	1.45	EV+ 10% 4.50	EV+ 61% 6.30
Nordicbet	1.45	EV+ 10% 4.50	EV+ 61% 6.30
Pinnacle	1.47	EV+ 19% 4.87	EV+ 63% 6.36

Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

Odds movement

1-1 %

67 %62 %

1.49 → 1.47

X+6 %

23 %18 %

4.60 → 4.87

2+9 %

18 %13 %

5.83 → 6.36

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Genk

Beveren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Genk (8–8)

Beveren (2–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Genk

Beveren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Genk

Beveren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Genk	Beveren
Points	4	3
xPoints	4.8	2
xG per match	1.9	0.8
xGA per match	1.1	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.31

Playing style	Genk	Beveren
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.52	0.41
xT per match	1.2	0.99
xTA per match	1.3	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	30	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.22
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	13	19
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.73
Passes per match	407	421
Passes against per match	312	402
Switches of play per match	33.9	33.7
Long balls per match	43	46

Set pieces	Genk	Beveren
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	4.9	3.4
Corners against per match	4.9	6.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.41

Other	Genk	Beveren
Throw-in control	0.77	0.78

The goalkeepers	Lucca Brughmans (Genk)	Johannes Schenk (Beveren)
Saves	6	16
Save %	46%	73%
xG prevented	18%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Genk

Fixtures, form & tips

Beveren

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Genk vs Beveren according to our model?

The model gives Genk a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genk 50%, draw 24%, Beveren 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.