Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League30 August 2026Stade Joseph Marien, Bryssel19°25 km/h

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Union Saint-GilloisePossession control

3–0

AnderlechtPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Union Saint-Gilloise (64%)

1 · Union Saint-Gilloise 64%X 20%16% Anderlecht · 2

64%

20%

16%

Analysis: Union Saint-Gilloise – Anderlecht

Oscar Nilsson · 29 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

FAKTA vs TEXT karşılaştırması sonucunda şu sorunlar tespit edildi:

1. "Union Saint-Gilloise leads the Belgian Pro League with a modest edge in points" - FACTS'ta lig liderliğine dair bir bilgi yok, sadece bu maça özgü points karşılaştırması (4 vs 3) var. Bu iddia desteklenmiyor. 2. "at odds of 5.25 with Bet365" - FACTS'ta herhangi bir bahis oranı veya bahis şirketi bilgisi yok. Bu uydurma bir detay.

Düzeltilmiş metin:

Union Saint-Gilloise's dominance over Anderlecht stands out, with six victories in their last eight encounters since 2023. This head-to-head record tilts heavily in the hosts' favor, but the sample size is small and recent season form offers a nuanced view. Union's 78% historical home win rate underscores their fortress-like performance at home, yet Anderlecht's high-pressing style brings an element of unpredictability.

Union Saint-Gilloise holds a modest edge in points for this matchup, yet Anderlecht's underlying numbers reveal a competitive streak. The visitors boast a higher xG per match at 2.2 versus Union's 1.7, suggesting they create more quality chances. Defensively, Anderlecht appears more robust too, with a lower xGA of 0.68 compared to Union's 1.2. While the surface numbers favor the hosts, the underlying stats indicate a potential upset.

In terms of most likely scorelines, the model points to a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for Union, each at 11%, but a 1-1 draw at 10% isn't far behind. Given the expected goals of 1.99 for Union and 0.87 for Anderlecht, the hosts are rightly favorites. However, Anderlecht's ability to exploit high-press situations could test Union's possession control strategy. The over/under at 54% hints at a slim preference for over 2.5 goals, reflecting the attacking capabilities of both sides.

Considering the market, Union Saint-Gilloise's dominance is priced aggressively, but Anderlecht's +EV potential at 16% probability might attract attention. While it's a long shot, Anderlecht's xG and xGA superiority suggest they could surprise. Punters looking for value might find the away win tempting, though it demands a leap of faith against the prevailing narrative.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #6xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Guilherme SmithLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.38
Kevin Mac AllisterCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Kamiel Van de PerreCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Anderlecht

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #1xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Marco KanaCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
Ali MaamarRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.51
Tristan DegreefLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.35

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Union Saint-Gilloise 64% · Draw 20% · Anderlecht 16%

Match prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise – Anderlecht

Predicted score matrix

Anderlecht →

Union Saint-Gilloise →

0–06.0%

0–14.7%

0–22.2%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.1%

1–110.2%

1–24.3%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.3%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–07.5%

3–16.5%

3–22.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.9%

4+–15.1%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-011%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

1,99–0,87

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.01

Over 2,554%

@1.86EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Union Saint-Gilloise to win64%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Union Saint-Gilloise to win64%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Kevin José Rodríguez Cortéz to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Kevin José Rodríguez Cortéz to score34%
Nathan-Dylan Saliba to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Union Saint-Gilloise64% probability@1.74PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
Over 2.554% probability@1.86PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Union Saint-Gilloise	X	2 · Anderlecht
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 1.74	3.86	4.89

Odds updated 30 Aug, 08:30

Odds movement

1+2 %

58 %53 %

1.71 → 1.74

X-1 %

27 %22 %

3.89 → 3.86

2+6 %

23 %18 %

4.62 → 4.89

Over 2,5+6 %

55 %50 %

1.76 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Union Saint-Gilloise 6Draw 1Anderlecht 1

Goals: 15–3 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win 78% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Union Saint-Gilloise

Anderlecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise (5–1)

Anderlecht (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Anderlecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Anderlecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Union Saint-Gilloise	Anderlecht
Points	4	3
xPoints	3.1	3.3
xG per match	1.7	2.2
xGA per match	1.2	0.68
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.01

Playing style	Union Saint-Gilloise	Anderlecht
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.63	0.87
xT per match	1.3	2.3
xTA per match	0.61	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	28	32
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.42
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.37
Entries into the box per match	15	32
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.78
Passes per match	423	542
Passes against per match	322	222
Switches of play per match	33.6	31.6
Long balls per match	44	33

Set pieces	Union Saint-Gilloise	Anderlecht
xG from free kicks	0.16	0
Corners per match	7.1	10.9
Corners against per match	3.6	0.99
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.18
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.81
First touch, defensive corners %	0.86	0.5

Other	Union Saint-Gilloise	Anderlecht
Throw-in control	0.65	0.8

The goalkeepers	Hervé Kouakou Koffi (Union Saint-Gilloise)	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)
Saves	4	2
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Union Saint-Gilloise

Fixtures, form & tips

Anderlecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht according to our model?

The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Saint-Gilloise 64%, draw 20%, Anderlecht 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.