Gorica vs Varaždin: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Croatian HNL12 September 202618°0,2 mm7 km/h

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GoricaLow block & direct

VaraždinCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Varaždin (48%)

1 · Gorica 24%X 29%48% Varaždin · 2

24%

29%

48%

Analysis: Gorica – Varaždin

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA: Model probabilities: HNK Gorica 24%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 48%. Model lean: NK Varazdin. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (9%). Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.00, NK Varazdin 1.56. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Both teams to score: 50%. Playing style: HNK Gorica profiles as low defence & direct, NK Varazdin as counter attack & crosses. NK Varazdin dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 8 meetings. Head-to-head since 2023: 8 matches, HNK Gorica 0W 5D 3L. Points: HNK Gorica 1 vs NK Varazdin 13 (edge NK Varazdin) xPoints: HNK Gorica 6.1 vs NK Varazdin 10.0 (edge NK Varazdin) xG per match: HNK Gorica 0.85 vs NK Varazdin 1.2 (edge NK Varazdin) xGA per match: HNK Gorica 1.7 vs NK Varazdin 0.92 (edge NK Varazdin)

TEXT: Gorica's fortress may be their own undoing. Their defensive style, paired with a direct approach, clashes with Varaždin's counter-attacking prowess. The visitors have shown a knack for exploiting spaces effectively, especially against teams like Gorica. With Varazdin's superior crossing game, the hosts will find it challenging to keep them at bay.

Delving into the numbers, the model gives a clear edge to Varaždin with a 48% win probability, backed by the stark reality of Gorica's current form. Despite home advantage, Gorica's expected goals (xG) of 1.00 paint a picture of an uphill battle. Their defensive frailties have been evident, allowing an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 per match. Meanwhile, Varaždin boasts an xG of 1.2 and a much tighter xGA of 0.92, underscoring their balanced approach.

The small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Gorica have yet to secure a win in 8 meetings, trailing with 5 draws and 3 losses. This historical edge, albeit limited, adds another layer of confidence in backing the visitors. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 further support the notion of a low-scoring affair, with the match likely leaning toward the under, given the 47% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Yet, the sharpest angle comes from the market's evaluation of Varaždin's chances. With odds of 2.40 at Bet365 for a Varaždin win, there is potential value for those trusting the model's lean and the visitors' superior form. Expect Varaždin to continue their dominance, likely grinding out a narrow victory, perhaps 0-1, leaving Gorica's supporters hoping for a change in fortunes another day.

Gorica

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #8xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Stefan PerićCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Bruno BogojevićLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
Kevin ČustovićRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.24

Varaždin

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Aleksa LatkovićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
Luka MamićLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Ivan MamutFxG 0.46 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Gorica – Varaždin

Predicted score matrix

Varaždin →

Gorica →

0–08.1%

0–111.7%

0–29.4%

0–34.9%

0–4+2.7%

1–07.4%

1–112.4%

1–29.4%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.7%

2–03.9%

2–16.0%

2–24.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.3%

3–12.0%

3–21.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-112%
3.0-29%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,00–1,56

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.79

Over 2,547%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Varaždin to win48%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Varaždin to win48%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Aleksa Latković to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Aleksa Latković to score22%
Mario Marina to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Varaždin48% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gorica	X	2 · Varaždin
Pinnacle	3.12	3.42	EV+ 5% 2.20

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:10

Odds movement

10 %

32 %27 %

3.12 → 3.12

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.42

20 %

45 %40 %

2.20 → 2.20

Over 2,50 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 2.00

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Gorica 0Draw 5Varaždin 3

Goals: 6–10 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

Key facts

NK Varazdin dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gorica

Varaždin

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gorica (2–10)

Varaždin (11–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gorica

Varaždin

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gorica

Varaždin

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gorica	Varaždin
Points	1	13
xPoints	6.1	10
xG per match	0.85	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.14

Playing style	Gorica	Varaždin
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.27
Field tilt	0.3	0.44
xT per match	0.76	0.78
xTA per match	1.2	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	25	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.7	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.7
Passes per match	280	330
Passes against per match	392	376
Switches of play per match	21.9	37.5
Long balls per match	30	40

Set pieces	Gorica	Varaždin
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.06
Corners per match	2.8	4.5
Corners against per match	6.7	5.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.64

Other	Gorica	Varaždin
Throw-in control	0.68	0.62

The goalkeepers	Davor Matijaš (Gorica)	Josip Silić (Varaždin)
Saves	12	25
Save %	60%	83%
xG prevented	43%	70%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gorica

Fixtures, form & tips

Varaždin

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gorica vs Varaždin according to our model?

The model gives Varaždin a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gorica 24%, draw 29%, Varaždin 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.