01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rijeka to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
Croatian HNL11°31 km/h
Läs på svenska
RijekaPossession & high pressvs
VaraždinCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (59%)
Rijeka vs Varaždin · Croatian HNL
1 · Rijeka 59%X 24%18% Varaždin · 2
59%
24%
18%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rijeka vs Varaždin (Croatian HNL, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Rijeka win 59%, draw 24%, Varaždin win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Rijeka 1.87, Varaždin 0.84. Most likely score: 1-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Rijeka or draw 82%, Varaždin or draw 41%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Rijeka – Varaždin
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The match turns on one question: can Rijeka’s high press stop Varaždin from turning the few loose possessions into counters and crosses? The model says yes more often than not, giving Rijeka a 59% win probability against 24% for the draw and 18% for Varaždin. Expected goals reinforce that shape: 1.87 for the hosts, 0.84 for the visitors. My call is a narrow home win, most likely 1-0.
That scoreline carries 12% in the model, level with 2-0 at 12%, while 1-1 follows at 11%. Rijeka’s possession game should spend long spells in the visitors’ half, but this is not a case for assuming constant chances. Varaždin’s counter-attacking profile gives them a route into the match, and both teams to score sits at 48%. The decisive issue is whether the visitors can create enough before Rijeka’s defensive structure closes the door.
The table gives Varaždin a small edge, 18 points to 17, and the expected-points gap says the same: 18.0 to 15.6. Yet the underlying chance numbers point back towards the hosts. Rijeka average 1.7 xG per match to Varaždin’s 1.2, and concede only 0.73 xGA compared with 0.9. That is the stronger platform, especially at home, where Rijeka have won 66% of 58 matches.
Varaždin have dominated this fixture since 2023, with 5 wins to Rijeka’s 2 across 9 meetings, plus 2 draws. That head-to-head record matters, but it should not be confused with current performance indicators: the visitors’ points edge is real, while Rijeka hold the xG and xGA advantage. Over 2.5 goals is a marginal 51% lean, but the sharper position is Rijeka to win with 1-0 the most likely scoreline.
RijekaForm WDWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #4
Key players
- Niko JankovićLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
- Ante OrecRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
VaraždinForm DDWLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Luka MamićCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.08
- Ivan CanjugaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- Frane MaglicaRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: Rijeka – Varaždin
Predicted score matrix
Varaždin →
Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–15.3%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–012.2%
1–110.8%
1–24.4%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.7%
2–19.8%
2–24.1%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.3%
3–16.1%
3–22.5%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.2%
4+–14.3%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.2-012%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,87–0,84
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
–
Over 2,551%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rijeka to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Tiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Tiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas to score30%
- Mario Marina to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesRijeka 2Draw 2Varaždin 5
Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 1,7)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- NK Varazdin dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 9 meetings.
- HNK Rijeka win 66% of their home matches all-time (58 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rijeka
Varaždin
Rijeka (16–12)
Varaždin (15–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rijeka
Varaždin
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rijeka
Varaždin
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rijeka | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 18 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 18 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.73 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Rijeka | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.77 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.92 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 474 | 332 |
| Passes against per match | 285 | 375 |
| Switches of play per match | 32 | 39.2 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Rijeka | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| Other | Rijeka | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Igor Vekić (Rijeka) | Josip Silić (Varaždin) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 39 |
| Save % | 71% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rijeka vs Varaždin according to our model?
The model gives Rijeka a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 59%, draw 24%, Varaždin 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rijeka vs Varaždin?
The model expects 1.87 goals (xG) for Rijeka and 0.84 for Varaždin, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rijeka or draw (1X) 82%, Varaždin or draw (X2) 41% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.