01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Osijek or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Croatian HNL9°18 km/h
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Lokomotiva ZagrebCounter-attacks & crossesvs
OsijekPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Osijek (39%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.81 (+0 %)
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek · Croatian HNL
1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%X 28%39% Osijek · 2
33%
28%
39%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek (Croatian HNL, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Lokomotiva Zagreb win 33%, draw 28%, Osijek win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.28, Osijek 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw 61%, Osijek or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Osijek
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Nine matches since 2023 have produced 2W, 4D and 3L for Lokomotiva Zagreb against Osijek. That is a narrow edge for the visitors, but the four draws are the first warning against making this a simple away-win case. The head-to-head adds texture, not certainty; current performance and chance creation carry more weight.
The season numbers lean Osijek with more authority. They have 17 points to the hosts’ 11, while xPoints sit at 14.4 against 12.4. More importantly, the visitors produce 1.4 xG per match and concede 1.4 xGA; Lokomotiva are at 1.0 xG and 1.7 xGA. Possession control should give Osijek the territorial platform, while the hosts’ counter attacks and crosses offer their route into the game. That clash makes a clean sheet less convincing than the away side’s underlying edge.
The model gives Lokomotiva 33%, the draw 28%, and Osijek 39%. That is not a runaway number, but it is a clear away lean. Expected goals are 1.28 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors, enough to put Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 9%. Read that correctly: the draw is the likeliest individual score, yet Osijek have the stronger aggregate path across the scoreline set.
Lokomotiva can make this awkward if their transitions land early, but their 1.7 xGA leaves too much room for a controlled Osijek side to create repeat pressure. The analysis points to the visitors, with 1-2 the practical match call despite 1-1 being the model’s top exact score. Over 2.5 has the marginal totals lean, but Osijek are the sharper betting angle.
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm DLLWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Marijan ČabrajaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.32
- Thanasis TriantafyllouCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
OsijekForm WDLDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #5xP/match #6Points #5
Key players
- Nail OmerovićLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.19
- Luka JelenićCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
- Roko JurišićLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Osijek
Predicted score matrix
Osijek →
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–18.6%
0–27.2%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.7%
1–111.7%
1–29.3%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.3%
2–25.9%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.1%
3–22.5%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,28–1,62
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.97
Over 2,555%
@1.81EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Osijek or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Armando Leon Resendez to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Armando Leon Resendez to score27%
- Oleksandr Petrusenko to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.555% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb | X | 2 · Osijek |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.72 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.72 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.29 | 2.49 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 05:59
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesLokomotiva Zagreb 2Draw 4Osijek 3
Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb (13–17)
Osijek (19–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Osijek
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Osijek
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 17 |
| xPoints | 12.4 | 14.4 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 369 |
| Passes against per match | 374 | 262 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.2 | 34.2 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| Other | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) | Marko Malenica (Osijek) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 49 | 31 |
| Save % | 74% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek according to our model?
The model gives Osijek a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%, draw 28%, Osijek 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek?
The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.62 for Osijek, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (1X) 61%, Osijek or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.