Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Prediction: Home win 36% (30 Oct 2026)

Croatian HNL30 October 20268°0,9 mm12 km/h

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Slaven BelupoLow block & direct

Istra 1961Low block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Slaven Belupo (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.45 (+3 %)

1 · Slaven Belupo 36%X 28%36% Istra 1961 · 2

36%

28%

36%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 (Croatian HNL, Friday, 30 October 2026): Slaven Belupo win 36%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Slaven Belupo 1.69, Istra 1961 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: Slaven Belupo or draw 64%, Istra 1961 or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Slaven Belupo – Istra 1961

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Slaven Belupo are the marginal pick, but the sharper read is goals: this matchup points to 2-1, with Over 2.5 carrying more weight than either side’s win case. The model gives both teams 36%, with the draw at 28%, yet still leans towards the hosts. That is a fine margin, not a case for treating either club as a clear favourite.

The scoring numbers explain the tension. Slaven produce 1.69 expected goals and Istra 1.62, a combined projection that supports Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. Both sides profile as low defence and direct. That tends to create fast transitions, loose second balls and enough openings for a match to break beyond a cautious 1-0 script.

Istra have the stronger underlying season case despite sitting a point behind: 14.6 xPoints against Slaven’s 11.7, 1.4 xG per match against 1.1, and 1.3 xGA against 1.9. The visitors have been the better process team. Slaven’s 13 points versus Istra’s 12 gives the hosts the actual table edge, but it also hints that their results have run ahead of their chance numbers.

The head-to-head since 2023 is perfectly level across 9 matches: Slaven have 3W 3D 3L. That is more than a tiny sample, but it still weighs less than current form indicators and expected goals. There is no historical dominance to lean on here; the recent series instead matches the model’s near-even 36%-28%-36% split.

The most likely individual scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 and 1-2 at 8% each, so a draw is very live. Still, the stronger betting lean is Over 2.5 goals rather than choosing a winner: 64% is the number that stands out, with 2-1 to Slaven Belupo the narrow score call.

Slaven Belupo

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #7xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Alen GrgićRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
Josip MitrovićLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.11

Istra 1961

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Emil FrederiksenRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.20
Raul KumarCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Ivan ŠaranićCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Slaven Belupo – Istra 1961

Predicted score matrix

Istra 1961 →

Slaven Belupo →

0–04.0%

0–15.6%

0–24.8%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.5%

1–05.9%

1–110.3%

1–28.1%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.2%

2–18.5%

2–26.8%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.1%

3–02.9%

3–14.8%

3–23.8%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.9%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,69–1,62

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.20

Over 2,564%

@1.60EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Marko Dabro to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Marko Dabro to score22%
Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.542% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
Over 3.542% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
Over 2.564% probability@1.60BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Slaven Belupo	X	2 · Istra 1961
Betsafe	2.18	3.55	2.80
Nordicbet	2.18	3.55	2.80

Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:35

Statistics

Head-to-head

9 matches

Slaven Belupo 3Draw 3Istra 1961 3

Goals: 9–12 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Slaven Belupo

Istra 1961

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Slaven Belupo (14–23)

Istra 1961 (17–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Slaven Belupo

Istra 1961

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Slaven Belupo

Istra 1961

The teams in numbers

Performance	Slaven Belupo	Istra 1961
Points	13	12
xPoints	11.7	14.6
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.9	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.17

Playing style	Slaven Belupo	Istra 1961
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.29
Field tilt	0.38	0.42
xT per match	0.89	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	24	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.7	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.69
Passes per match	275	313
Passes against per match	395	375
Switches of play per match	21.9	17.5
Long balls per match	32	27

Set pieces	Slaven Belupo	Istra 1961
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	4	4.8
Corners against per match	4.9	5.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.49

Other	Slaven Belupo	Istra 1961
Throw-in control	0.69	0.67

The goalkeepers	Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo)	Franko Kolić (Istra 1961)
Saves	22	36
Save %	60%	71%
xG prevented	43%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Slaven Belupo

Fixtures, form & tips

Istra 1961

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 according to our model?

The model gives Slaven Belupo a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 36%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

The model expects 1.69 goals (xG) for Slaven Belupo and 1.62 for Istra 1961, 3.31 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Slaven Belupo or draw (1X) 64%, Istra 1961 or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.