Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction: Home win 56% (27 Oct 2026)

Croatian HNL27 October 202610°5 km/h

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Dinamo ZagrebPossession & high press

RijekaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Dinamo Zagreb (56%)

1 · Dinamo Zagreb 56%X 23%21% Rijeka · 2

56%

23%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka (Croatian HNL, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Dinamo Zagreb win 56%, draw 23%, Rijeka win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Dinamo Zagreb 1.91, Rijeka 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Dinamo Zagreb or draw 79%, Rijeka or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Dinamo Zagreb – Rijeka

Sofia Andersson · 26 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Dinamo Zagreb hold the edge over Rijeka in this fixture: 6 wins to 1 in 12 meetings. Since 2023, the head-to-head reads 12 matches, 6W 5D 1L for the hosts. That is a meaningful pattern, not a tiny sample, but it does not settle the match by itself. The more useful question is whether the current numbers justify the home bias. They do.

Dinamo have 19 points to Rijeka’s 17, while the expected-points gap is 17.4 to 15.6. More sharply, the hosts generate 2.4 xG per match against 1.7. Rijeka’s defensive number is the cleaner one, though: 0.73 xGA per match versus Dinamo’s 0.9. That is the tension in this game. Dinamo create more and carry the higher win probability at 56%, but Rijeka concede at an elite rate in this comparison.

Both sides want possession and press high, so this should not become a passive home-control performance. Dinamo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches and win 76% of their 59 home matches. The model puts Rijeka’s win chance at 21%, with the draw at 23%, and those draw figures matter because the visitors have enough defensive structure to keep the match close. Dinamo are the right side; they are not an automatic runaway.

The score matrix is blunt: 1-1 is the single most likely result at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%. Still, the broader goal model leans beyond that one scoreline. Expected goals sit at 1.91 for Dinamo and 1.07 for Rijeka, both teams to score is 56%, and over 2.5 goals is 57%. My call is a Dinamo win, 2-1 most likely as the betting scoreline, with over 2.5 goals the sharper lean.

Dinamo Zagreb

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Josip MišićCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
Luka StojkovićRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.23
Niko GalešićCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.13

Rijeka

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Niko JankovićLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Ante OrecRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Dinamo Zagreb – Rijeka

Predicted score matrix

Rijeka →

Dinamo Zagreb →

0–05.4%

0–15.1%

0–22.9%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.4%

1–110.7%

1–25.6%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.2%

2–19.9%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.9%

3–16.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.3%

4+–14.7%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,91–1,07

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.08

Over 2,557%

@1.74

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Dinamo Zagreb to win56%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Dinamo Zagreb to win56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Dion Drena Beljo to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Dion Drena Beljo to score36%
Branko Pavić to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Dinamo Zagreb	X	2 · Rijeka
Betsafe	1.65	3.60	4.60
LeoVegas	1.67	3.65	4.40
Nordicbet	1.65	3.60	4.60
Pinnacle	1.68	3.90	4.71

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

58 %53 %

1.70 → 1.68

X+2 %

26 %21 %

3.82 → 3.90

2+11 %

23 %18 %

4.25 → 4.71

Over 2,5+7 %

58 %53 %

1.63 → 1.74

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

12 matches

Dinamo Zagreb 6Draw 5Rijeka 1

Goals: 15–12 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

Key facts

GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 12 meetings.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb win 76% of their home matches all-time (59 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dinamo Zagreb

Rijeka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dinamo Zagreb (23–12)

Rijeka (16–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dinamo Zagreb

Rijeka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dinamo Zagreb

Rijeka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dinamo Zagreb	Rijeka
Points	19	17
xPoints	17.4	15.6
xG per match	2.4	1.7
xGA per match	0.9	0.73
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.13

Playing style	Dinamo Zagreb	Rijeka
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.76	0.77
xT per match	1.6	1.2
xTA per match	0.66	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	31	27
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.32
Entries into the box per match	18	16
Entries into the box against	7	6
Pass completion %	0.77	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	429	474
Passes against per match	247	285
Switches of play per match	33.7	32
Long balls per match	35	36

Set pieces	Dinamo Zagreb	Rijeka
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.03
Corners per match	6.6	6.7
Corners against per match	2.8	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.58

Other	Dinamo Zagreb	Rijeka
Throw-in control	0.7	0.67

The goalkeepers	Dominik Kotarski (Dinamo Zagreb)	Igor Vekić (Rijeka)
Saves	17	15
Save %	68%	71%
xG prevented	44%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dinamo Zagreb

Fixtures, form & tips

Rijeka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka according to our model?

The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dinamo Zagreb 56%, draw 23%, Rijeka 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka?

The model expects 1.91 goals (xG) for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.07 for Rijeka, 2.98 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Dinamo Zagreb or draw (1X) 79%, Rijeka or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.