01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Varaždin to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Croatian HNL9°9,2 mm12 km/h
Läs på svenska
VaraždinPossession control1–2
Slaven BelupoLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Varaždin (62%)
Varaždin vs Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL
1 · Varaždin 62%X 23%15% Slaven Belupo · 2
62%
23%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Varaždin vs Slaven Belupo (Croatian HNL, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Varaždin win 62%, draw 23%, Slaven Belupo win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Varaždin 2.00, Slaven Belupo 0.93. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Varaždin or draw 85%, Slaven Belupo or draw 38%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Varaždin – Slaven Belupo
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With a forecasted rain-soaked evening ahead, Varaždin's defensive discipline could be the decisive factor. The hosts are shaping up as the more robust side, not just by virtue of their higher position on the table but also in terms of expected goals and past encounters. Their possession-based style could dominate against a Slaven Belupo side that relies heavily on a low block and direct plays. The hosts have consistently shown their ability to manage games effectively, as reflected in their xGA of 0.93 compared to the visitors' 1.9.
In terms of recent history, Varaždin has the upper hand in the nine head-to-head matches since 2023, claiming victory in five. However, head-to-head can sometimes mislead given the small sample size, so focusing on the current form and underlying numbers is more prudent. Varaždin’s expected goals per match at 1.1 may echo that of Slaven Belupo, but their actual goal-scoring opportunities are likely to be more frequent due to better defensive robustness.
The model leans towards a home win at 62%, with the most likely scorelines being 2-0 and 1-0. These probabilities align with a cautious but controlled victory for the hosts, especially considering the expected goals of 2.00 for Varaždin against a mere 0.93 for Slaven Belupo. The over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 56%, yet the weather might temper this expectation.
For the betting angle, there's noticeable value in backing Varaždin at odds of 1.65 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model rates this bet with a 62% chance of success, offering a 2% edge. For those keen on value over risk, sticking with the home win aligns with both statistical support and current form.
VaraždinForm DDDWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Luka MamićCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.09
- Ivan CanjugaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- Frane MaglicaRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
Slaven BelupoForm WLDWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #7xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Alen GrgićRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
- Ilija NestorovskiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Varaždin 62% · Draw 23% · Slaven Belupo 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - VarazdinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,72fair 5,52-15 %
MissMatchresultat - Slaven BelupoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,15fair 25,43-48 %
MissMatch prediction: Varaždin – Slaven Belupo
Predicted score matrix
Slaven Belupo →
Varaždin →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–14.7%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.4%
1–110.2%
1–24.6%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.9%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.1%
3–16.6%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–15.2%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,00–0,93
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.19
Over 2,556%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Varaždin to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Tomislav Duvnjak to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Tomislav Duvnjak to score24%
- Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Varaždin62% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Varaždin62% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Varaždin62% probability@1.65LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Varaždin | X | 2 · Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 5% 1.70 | 3.99 | 4.57 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
60 %55 %
1.67 → 1.70
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.01 → 3.99
2+3 %
22 %17 %
4.43 → 4.57
Over 2,5+4 %
60 %55 %
1.61 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesVaraždin 5Draw 1Slaven Belupo 3
Goals: 14–10 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Varaždin
Slaven Belupo
Varaždin (14–8)
Slaven Belupo (12–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Slaven Belupo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Varaždin
Slaven Belupo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Varaždin | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 10 |
| xPoints | 15.7 | 11.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.93 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Varaždin | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 327 | 270 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 396 |
| Switches of play per match | 39.3 | 21.8 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Varaždin | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Other | Varaždin | Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Silić (Varaždin) | Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 20 |
| Save % | 83% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 74% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Varaždin vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?
The model gives Varaždin a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varaždin 62%, draw 23%, Slaven Belupo 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Varaždin vs Slaven Belupo?
The model expects 2.00 goals (xG) for Varaždin and 0.93 for Slaven Belupo, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Varaždin or draw (1X) 85%, Slaven Belupo or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.