01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Gorica or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Croatian HNL9°13,5 mm16 km/h
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GoricaLow block & direct0–0
Lokomotiva ZagrebLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Gorica (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.25 (+10 %)
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb · Croatian HNL
1 · Gorica 38%X 34%28% Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2
38%
34%
28%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (Croatian HNL, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Gorica win 38%, draw 34%, Lokomotiva Zagreb win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Gorica 1.28, Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Gorica or draw 72%, Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Gorica – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A 38% chance of winning sounds promising for Gorica, yet the real intrigue lies in the 34% probability of a draw. The betting market has underestimated this outcome, offering a juicy edge of 8% at odds 3.2 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. Given the 13% likelihood of a 1-1 draw, and the expected goals leaning slightly towards Gorica at 1.28 versus Lokomotiva's 1.14, the numbers suggest this match is more evenly poised than many might believe.
Despite Lokomotiva's historical dominance in this fixture — winning six of the last nine meetings — current form shouldn't be overshadowed. Lokomotiva's slightly better xPoints and xG per match mark them as marginally sharper in attack, but Gorica's xGA advantage indicates a more resilient defense. Both sides profile as low defense and direct, likely leading to a tactical stalemate, especially with the rain predicted to dampen any attacking flair.
With both teams expected to score and a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals, the game leans towards a close contest. However, the most compelling angle here is the value on the draw, especially with a 34% model rating highlighting its attractiveness. With odds at 3.2, that draw presents a strategic play for those seeking value in a tightly balanced clash.
GoricaForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #8xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Gonçalo Faria CostaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Jakov FilipovićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Bruno BogojevićLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #9xP/match #7Points #7
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Marijan ČabrajaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.32
- Thanasis TriantafyllouCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gorica 38% · Draw 34% · Lokomotiva Zagreb 28%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - HNK GoricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,15fair 12,10-33 %
MissMatchresultat - NK Lokomotiva ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,63fair 15,14-36 %
MissMatch prediction: Gorica – Lokomotiva Zagreb
Predicted score matrix
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–19.7%
0–25.8%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.0%
1–113.3%
1–27.4%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.3%
2–24.7%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.5%
3–22.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,28–1,14
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.83EV+0%
Over 2,544%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Gorica or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Fran Brodić to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Leon Belcar to score19%
- Teodor Kralevski to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw34% probability@3.25PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw34% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- X · Draw34% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gorica | X | 2 · Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.38 | EV+ 8% 3.20 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | EV+ 6% 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | EV+ 8% 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | EV+ 10% 3.25 | 2.86 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 07:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
41 %36 %
2.37 → 2.52
X-1 %
31 %26 %
3.27 → 3.25
2-2 %
35 %30 %
2.92 → 2.86
Over 2,5+7 %
52 %47 %
1.87 → 2.00
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesGorica 2Draw 1Lokomotiva Zagreb 6
Goals: 10–20 (⌀ 3,3)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- Lokomotiva Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 2 in 9 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Gorica (7–15)
Lokomotiva Zagreb (13–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gorica | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 10 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| xG per match | 0.86 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Gorica | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 299 | 271 |
| Passes against per match | 385 | 371 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.5 | 28.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Gorica | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Other | Gorica | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Renato Josipović (Gorica) | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 45 |
| Save % | 84% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb according to our model?
The model gives Gorica a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gorica 38%, draw 34%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Gorica and 1.14 for Lokomotiva Zagreb, 2.42 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Gorica or draw (1X) 72%, Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 66%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.