01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hajduk Split to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Croatian HNL13°14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Istra 1961Low block & direct2–2
Hajduk SplitPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hajduk Split (55%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.52 (+2 %)
Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split · Croatian HNL
1 · Istra 1961 21%X 23%55% Hajduk Split · 2
21%
23%
55%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split (Croatian HNL, Monday, 26 October 2026): Istra 1961 win 21%, draw 23%, Hajduk Split win 55%. Expected goals (xG): Istra 1961 1.17, Hajduk Split 1.73. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Istra 1961 or draw 45%, Hajduk Split or draw 79%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Istra 1961 – Hajduk Split
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: In the nine-match head-to-head record between these two, things have been surprisingly tight: Istra 1961 has managed two wins and four draws against Hajduk Split, who have three victories. This might suggest a closer contest than the odds imply, but historical encounters have less weight than current form and expected goals. Hajduk has the upper hand with 22 points and an xPoints tally of 16.5, edging out Istra's 12 points and 14.6 xPoints.
The model gives Hajduk a 55% chance of winning, with a 23% probability of a draw and just a 21% chance for Istra to snatch a win. Expected goals back this up: Hajduk leads with 1.73 xG to Istra's 1.17. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 55%, and both teams finding the net is at 57%. With Istra adopting a low defense, direct approach, and Hajduk employing a possession-heavy, high-press strategy, the guests will likely control the tempo and territory.
Current form further cements Hajduk's status as favorites. They have a more efficient attack and a sturdier defense, evidenced by their xGA of 0.72 per match compared to Istra's 1.3. The expected goals and model scorelines suggest a 1-2 victory for Hajduk, which aligns with their superior xG and ability to capitalize on Istra’s defensive lapses.
Given the numbers, this matchup leans towards a Hajduk victory with a final scoreline likely around 1-2, and a slight nod towards over 2.5 goals. This angle, rooted in the combination of data and analysis, offers a calculated opportunity for those keen to back the visitors.
Istra 1961Form DWLWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #4xP/match #5Points #6
Key players
- Emil FrederiksenRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.20
- Raul KumarCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Ivan ŠaranićCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.12
Hajduk SplitForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.35 · xT 0.24
- Šimun HrgovićLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Adrion PajazitiCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Istra 1961 21% · Draw 23% · Hajduk Split 55%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Istra 1961Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,13fair 14,23-22 %
MissMatchresultat - Hajduk SplitBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,59fair 6,56-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Istra 1961 – Hajduk Split
Predicted score matrix
Hajduk Split →
Istra 1961 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–19.2%
0–28.2%
0–34.7%
0–4+3.0%
1
1–06.1%
1–111.5%
1–29.6%
1–35.6%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–03.8%
2–16.5%
2–25.6%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.5%
3–22.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,17–1,73
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.28EV+2%
Over 2,555%
@1.63
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hajduk Split to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Dalisson de Almeida Leite to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Dalisson de Almeida Leite to score25%
- Mohamed Nasraoui to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.567% probability@1.52BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.567% probability@1.52LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
- Under 3.567% probability@1.52NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Istra 1961 | X | 2 · Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.72 |
| LeoVegas | 3.95 | 3.70 | 1.72 |
| Nordicbet | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | 4.35 | 4.04 | 1.72 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 11:35
Odds movement
1+7 %
25 %20 %
4.06 → 4.35
X+6 %
26 %21 %
3.80 → 4.04
2-3 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.72
Over 2,5-2 %
60 %55 %
1.67 → 1.63
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesIstra 1961 2Draw 4Hajduk Split 3
Goals: 10–14 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
Istra 1961 (17–16)
Hajduk Split (19–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Istra 1961 | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 22 |
| xPoints | 14.6 | 16.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.72 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Istra 1961 | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 313 | 427 |
| Passes against per match | 376 | 248 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.5 | 26.6 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Istra 1961 | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| Other | Istra 1961 | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Franko Kolić (Istra 1961) | Toni Silić (Hajduk Split) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 14 |
| Save % | 71% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split according to our model?
The model gives Hajduk Split a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istra 1961 21%, draw 23%, Hajduk Split 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?
The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Istra 1961 and 1.73 for Hajduk Split, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Istra 1961 or draw (1X) 45%, Hajduk Split or draw (X2) 79% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.