Slovácko vs Teplice Prediction: Away win 40% (31 Oct 2026)

Czech First League31 October 20266°0,6 mm12 km/h

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SlováckoPossession control

TeplicePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Teplice (40%)

1 · Slovácko 31%X 28%40% Teplice · 2

31%

28%

40%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Slovácko vs Teplice (Czech First League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Slovácko win 31%, draw 28%, Teplice win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Slovácko 1.22, Teplice 1.53. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Slovácko or draw 60%, Teplice or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Slovácko – Teplice

Marcus Johansson · 26 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Teplice bring a possession-control identity into a game where Slovácko prefer control too, so the key contest is not likely to be raw transition volume but who turns patient spells on the ball into entries around the box. The visitors have the stronger attacking baseline: 1.4 xG per match against the hosts’ 0.87. That gap matters when neither side is built to simply concede possession and break at speed.

The home side’s defensive numbers deepen the concern. Slovácko allow 1.8 xGA per match, while Teplice sit at 1.4, and the points table tells a similarly clear story: 7 points versus 18. Expected points soften neither verdict, with 10.9 for the hosts and 17.7 for the visitors. The tactical picture points to Teplice having more of the reliable final-third game, even if the home side can keep the ball long enough to make this uncomfortable.

Since 2023, the visitors lead this head-to-head 4 wins to 1 across 6 meetings, with one draw. That is a useful supporting pattern rather than the foundation of the call; form and expected-goals numbers carry more weight. The model gives Teplice a 40% win probability, ahead of Slovácko’s 31% and the draw at 28%. Still, the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 and 1-2 at 9% each. My read is away-leaning, but with a draw very much alive in a control-versus-control matchup.

Goals sit on a narrow edge rather than a runaway case. Over 2.5 lands at 52%, and both teams to score is rated at 56%, so the lean is over 2.5 despite 1-1 being the modal scoreline. Betsafe price the away win at 2.8, as do Nordicbet; against a 40% model rating, that is assessed as a 13% edge. Over 2.5 at 1.95 with Betsafe carries only a 1% edge. Teplice at 2.8 is the sharpest angle.

Slovácko

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #14xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Andrej StojcevskiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Michal TravnikCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Jocelin BehiratcheCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.01

Teplice

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #4xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Lukas MarecekCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Matej PulkrabFxG 0.41 · xT 0.09
Dalibor VecerkaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Slovácko – Teplice

Predicted score matrix

Teplice →

Slovácko →

0–06.7%

0–19.4%

0–27.5%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.1%

1–07.4%

1–112.3%

1–29.1%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.5%

2–04.7%

2–17.3%

2–25.6%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.5%

3–01.9%

3–13.0%

3–22.3%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.0-27%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,22–1,53

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@1.75

Over 2,552%

@1.95EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Teplice or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Teplice or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Tomáš Zlatohlávek to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Tomáš Zlatohlávek to score22%
Gibril Sosseh to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Teplice40% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Teplice40% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Slovácko	X	2 · Teplice
Betsafe	2.42	3.10	EV+ 13% 2.80
Nordicbet	2.42	3.10	EV+ 13% 2.80

Odds updated 26 Oct, 14:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.42

X-3 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.10

20 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.80

Over 2,5+2 %

51 %46 %

1.92 → 1.95

Nordicbet · 6 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Slovácko 1Draw 1Teplice 4

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 1,7)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FK Teplice dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Slovácko

Teplice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Slovácko (11–23)

Teplice (18–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Slovácko

Teplice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Slovácko

Teplice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Slovácko	Teplice
Points	7	18
xPoints	10.9	17.7
xG per match	0.87	1.4
xGA per match	1.8	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.47	0.11

Playing style	Slovácko	Teplice
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.44	0.49
xT per match	0.88	1.2
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.71
Passes per match	343	316
Passes against per match	357	370
Switches of play per match	17.7	23.2
Long balls per match	27	28

Set pieces	Slovácko	Teplice
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	3.6	5.7
Corners against per match	4.7	4.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.61

Other	Slovácko	Teplice
Throw-in control	0.66	0.7

The goalkeepers	Milan Heca (Slovácko)	Matous Trmal (Teplice)
Saves	32	40
Save %	68%	73%
xG prevented	43%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Slovácko

Fixtures, form & tips

Teplice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Slovácko vs Teplice according to our model?

The model gives Teplice a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slovácko 31%, draw 28%, Teplice 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Slovácko vs Teplice?

The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Slovácko and 1.53 for Teplice, 2.75 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Slovácko or draw (1X) 60%, Teplice or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.