01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Czech First League7°14 km/h
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Mladá BoleslavPossession controlvs
Hradec KrálovéPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Mladá Boleslav (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Hradec Králové @ 2.95 (+4 %)
Mladá Boleslav vs Hradec Králové · Czech First League
1 · Mladá Boleslav 39%X 25%35% Hradec Králové · 2
39%
25%
35%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mladá Boleslav vs Hradec Králové (Czech First League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Mladá Boleslav win 39%, draw 25%, Hradec Králové win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Mladá Boleslav 1.67, Hradec Králové 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Mladá Boleslav or draw 65%, Hradec Králové or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Mladá Boleslav – Hradec Králové
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
A 39% to 35% home edge is too thin to call Mladá Boleslav a properly priced favourite against Hradec Králové. The model leans to the hosts, but only narrowly. My match call is 1-1, the single most likely scoreline at 12%, while the goals lean is Over 2.5 at 56%.
The points table favours Boleslav, 21 to 15, yet the underlying picture pushes back hard. Hradec lead expected points by 17.3 to 14.6 and concede far less: 1.2 xGA per match against the hosts’ 1.8. Both teams sit on 1.3 xG per match, so Boleslav’s apparent league-position advantage has not come with a stronger chance-production profile.
That is the opening for the visitors. Both sides profile as possession-control teams, so this need not become a frantic match, but the projected match xG is 1.67 for the hosts and 1.25 for Hradec. That supports both teams to score at 58% and explains why Over 2.5 gets the marginal nod despite 1-1 being the modal exact score. The next most likely home outcomes, 2-1 and 1-0, are each 9%.
Boleslav’s head-to-head record since 2023 is 2W 1D 1L across four matches. It is a positive detail for the hosts, not a decisive one. The sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals, especially when Hradec’s xPoints and defensive numbers are cleaner.
So the straight result view is a narrow home lean, not a home bet. The price creates the sharper angle: Hradec Králové away at 2.95 with Betsafe and Nordicbet is assessed as EV+ by the model, rated at 35% with a 4% edge. That is not a guarantee; it is the market mismatch worth taking seriously.
Mladá BoleslavForm WLLWD
League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #13xP/match #11Points #3
Key players
- Martin SubertLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.15
- Solomon JohnRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
- David KozelCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
Hradec KrálovéForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #5xT #10xP/match #10Points #11
Key players
- Filip CihakCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
- Jakub UhrincatCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Vladimir DaridaCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Mladá Boleslav – Hradec Králové
Predicted score matrix
Hradec Králové →
Mladá Boleslav →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–16.4%
0–24.2%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.6%
1–27.0%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.4%
2–25.9%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.2%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,67–1,25
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.00
Over 2,556%
@1.72
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Martin Subert to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Martin Subert to score20%
- Denis Donát to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hradec Králové35% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Hradec Králové35% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mladá Boleslav | X | 2 · Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.20 | 3.30 | EV+ 4% 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.20 | 3.30 | EV+ 4% 2.95 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 14:36
Odds movement
10 %
44 %39 %
2.20 → 2.20
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.30
20 %
33 %28 %
2.95 → 2.95
Over 2,5-2 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.72
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMladá Boleslav 2Draw 1Hradec Králové 1
Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mladá Boleslav
Hradec Králové
Mladá Boleslav (19–14)
Hradec Králové (11–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mladá Boleslav
Hradec Králové
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mladá Boleslav
Hradec Králové
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mladá Boleslav | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 15 |
| xPoints | 14.6 | 17.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Mladá Boleslav | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 335 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.7 | 22.8 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Mladá Boleslav | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.6 |
| Other | Mladá Boleslav | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Jiri Floder (Mladá Boleslav) | Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 36 | 43 |
| Save % | 74% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mladá Boleslav vs Hradec Králové according to our model?
The model gives Mladá Boleslav a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladá Boleslav 39%, draw 25%, Hradec Králové 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Mladá Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Mladá Boleslav and 1.25 for Hradec Králové, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Mladá Boleslav or draw (1X) 65%, Hradec Králové or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.