01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Czech First League7°1,2 mm13 km/h
Läs på svenska
PardubiceLow block & directvs
Slovan LiberecPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Slovan Liberec (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.88 (+4 %)
Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec · Czech First League
1 · Pardubice 29%X 29%42% Slovan Liberec · 2
29%
29%
42%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec (Czech First League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Pardubice win 29%, draw 29%, Slovan Liberec win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Pardubice 1.10, Slovan Liberec 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Pardubice or draw 58%, Slovan Liberec or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Pardubice – Slovan Liberec
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Four wins to one across six meetings since 2023 puts Slovan Liberec ahead of Pardubice in this fixture; with the remaining match drawn, the hosts’ head-to-head line is 1W 1D 4L. That is a matchup signal, not season form. The visitors have handled this pairing more often, but six meetings do not set tomorrow’s price by themselves.
The season picture still favours Liberec. Pardubice have 14 points against 20, while xPoints are tighter at 18.0 versus 18.9. The separation is clearer in the underlying chance data: 1.3 xG per match versus 1.6, and 1.4 xGA versus 0.98. The hosts profile as low defence & direct; the visitors want possession control. That contrast points to Liberec spending longer spells in better territory, while Pardubice look for quicker, more selective routes forward.
The model makes the visitors the lean at 42%, against 29% for Pardubice and 29% for the draw. Still, 1-1 is the most likely individual scoreline at 13%, ahead of 0-1 at 11% and 1-0 at 9%. That is the tension in this game: Liberec have the stronger total profile, but not enough attacking separation to make a home response unlikely. Expected goals sit at 1.10 for Pardubice and 1.37 for Liberec. Both teams to score is exactly 50%, while over 2.5 goals is only 45%.
My call is a tight Liberec edge, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline and under 2.5 goals the stronger totals lean. Under 2.5 at 1.88 with Betsafe or Nordicbet is assessed as EV+, with the model rating it 55% for a 4% edge. Under 3.5 at 1.34 with Betsafe also grades EV+ at 77% and a 3% edge, but under 2.5 at 1.88 is the sharper price.
PardubiceForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #9xP/match #6Points #12
Key players
- Dávid KrčíkCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
- Jason NoslinCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Tomáš JelínekCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
Slovan LiberecForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #6xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Lukas MasekFxG 0.41 · xT -0.01
- Vasil KušejCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
- Aziz KayondoLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Pardubice – Slovan Liberec
Predicted score matrix
Slovan Liberec →
Pardubice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.9%
0–111.3%
0–28.0%
0–33.6%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–09.0%
1–113.1%
1–28.7%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.0%
2–24.8%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.6%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,10–1,37
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,555%
@1.88EV+4%
Over 2,545%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slovan Liberec or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Lukáš Mašek to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Lukáš Mašek to score27%
- Lukáš Masopust to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- Under 3.577% probability@1.34BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Pardubice | X | 2 · Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 18:36
Odds movement
10 %
35 %30 %
2.85 → 2.85
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.25 → 3.35
2-3 %
43 %38 %
2.32 → 2.25
Over 2,50 %
53 %48 %
1.82 → 1.82
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesPardubice 1Draw 1Slovan Liberec 4
Goals: 4–11 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Slovan Liberec dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Pardubice
Slovan Liberec
Pardubice (14–17)
Slovan Liberec (13–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Pardubice
Slovan Liberec
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Pardubice
Slovan Liberec
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Pardubice | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 20 |
| xPoints | 18 | 18.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.98 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Pardubice | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 287 | 275 |
| Passes against per match | 393 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 22.9 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Pardubice | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| Other | Pardubice | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice) | Tomas Koubek (Slovan Liberec) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 25 |
| Save % | 72% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec according to our model?
The model gives Slovan Liberec a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pardubice 29%, draw 29%, Slovan Liberec 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec?
The model expects 1.10 goals (xG) for Pardubice and 1.37 for Slovan Liberec, 2.46 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Pardubice or draw (1X) 58%, Slovan Liberec or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.