01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sparta Praha to win76%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Czech First League11°2,1 mm27 km/h
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Sparta PrahaPossession & high pressvs
PardubiceLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sparta Praha (76%)
Sparta Praha vs Pardubice · Czech First League
1 · Sparta Praha 76%X 15%9% Pardubice · 2
76%
15%
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Analysis: Sparta Praha – Pardubice
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The odds 1.31 with Bet365 aren't in the facts and are an unsupported claim — the rest of the text aligns with the data.
CORRECTED TEXT:
Sparta Praha's 76% win probability against Pardubice sets the stage for a dominant performance. The numbers point to a 2-0 victory, with Sparta's expected goals at 2.59 sharply contrasting Pardubice's 0.85. The small head-to-head sample, with Sparta winning three of the last four encounters, supports the hosts' superiority but doesn't capture the full story of their current form, which is decisively in their favor.
Sparta's strategy of possession and high press contrasts starkly with Pardubice's low defense and direct play. This difference is likely to translate into a match where the hosts control both the pace and the ball. Given Sparta's historical 67% home win rate, the odds are stacked against Pardubice, who will need more than their direct approach to disrupt Sparta's rhythm.
While the model leans towards a scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0, the chance of both teams scoring sits at 53%. This suggests Pardubice might find a way through Sparta's defenses, but their 1.2 xG per match is significantly lower than Sparta's, making it unlikely they'll convert enough chances to change the match's outcome.
The expected 5.7 mm of rain could dampen goal-scoring opportunities, yet the model still leans heavily towards over 2.5 goals at 67%. This suggests that even with adverse weather conditions, Sparta's offensive capabilities should shine through, likely overwhelming the visitors.
The statistical and stylistic advantages point clearly to a home victory, making Sparta Praha the model's clear lean in this match.
Sparta PrahaForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #3Points #7
Key players
- Adam KarabecRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.18
- Roman MacekCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
- John Anthony Mercado CueroRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.20
PardubiceForm LLDWW
League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #8xP/match #5Points #13
Key players
- Vojtech PatrakFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
- Samuel SimekFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Daniel SmékalFxG 0.37 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Sparta Praha – Pardubice
Predicted score matrix
Pardubice →
Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–12.5%
0–21.2%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.0%
1–17.3%
1–23.0%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.1%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.3%
3–17.9%
3–23.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–011.2%
4+–19.5%
4+–24.1%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,59–0,85
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.58
Over 2,567%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sparta Praha to win76%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score39%
- Jason Jonathan Brian Noslin to be booked20%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sparta Praha | X | 2 · Pardubice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.30 | 5.15 | 7.60 |
| Nordicbet | 1.30 | 5.15 | 7.60 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 09:36
Odds movement
10 %
73 %68 %
1.30 → 1.30
X0 %
20 %15 %
5.15 → 5.15
20 %
15 %10 %
7.60 → 7.60
Over 2,50 %
67 %62 %
1.45 → 1.45
Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSparta Praha 3Draw 0Pardubice 1
Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- AC Sparta Prague win 67% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sparta Praha
Pardubice
Sparta Praha (18–12)
Pardubice (9–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sparta Praha
Pardubice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sparta Praha
Pardubice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sparta Praha | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 8 |
| xPoints | 14.3 | 13.6 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Sparta Praha | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.76 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.65 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 451 | 260 |
| Passes against per match | 226 | 402 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.6 | 21.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Sparta Praha | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Other | Sparta Praha | Pardubice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Surovcik (Sparta Praha) | Vladimír Neuman (Pardubice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 19 |
| Save % | 64% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sparta Praha vs Pardubice according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Praha a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Praha 76%, draw 15%, Pardubice 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.