01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Teplice or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Czech First League10°4,2 mm22 km/h
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TeplicePossession controlvs
Sigma OlomoucPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Teplice (37%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+4 %)
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc · Czech First League
1 · Teplice 37%X 31%32% Sigma Olomouc · 2
37%
31%
32%
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Analysis: Teplice – Sigma Olomouc
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: The model gives Teplice a slight edge with a 37% win probability, compared to Sigma Olomouc's 32%, underscoring the competitive nature of this matchup. The expected goals for both teams are close, with the hosts slightly ahead at 1.38 against the visitors' 1.30. These numbers suggest a tight encounter, where Teplice's marginally superior xPoints of 12.5 versus Sigma's 10.8 nudges them forward as favorites.
Head-to-head data, albeit a small sample of six matches, shows a near-even split with Teplice winning twice and Sigma three times. However, it weighs less than the current form and expected metrics, which tilt in Teplice's favor. The expected goal count within 8 seconds of winning possession gives Teplice another slight edge, an indicator of their potential to convert quick transitions into scoring opportunities.
With a projected most likely scoreline of 1-1 and a weather forecast hinting at rain, scoring might be suppressed, aligning with the 50% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is slightly favored at 55%. In a balanced matchup, Teplice's edge across the model probability and underlying metrics makes them the model's lean.
TepliceForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #5xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Lukas MarecekCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
- Matej PulkrabFxG 0.41 · xT 0.09
- Matej RadostaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
Sigma OlomoucForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #15xP/match #12Points #4
Key players
- Péter BaráthCDMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
- Václav SejkFxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
- Abdoulaye SyllaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Teplice – Sigma Olomouc
Predicted score matrix
Sigma Olomouc →
Teplice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–18.5%
0–25.8%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–09.1%
1–112.6%
1–28.0%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.5%
2–25.5%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.9%
3–22.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,38–1,30
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.90
Over 2,550%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Teplice or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Tomáš Zlatohlávek to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Václav Sejk to score24%
- Matúš Malý to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Teplice | X | 2 · Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.52 | EV+ 4% 3.35 | 2.52 |
| Nordicbet | 2.52 | EV+ 4% 3.35 | 2.52 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesTeplice 2Draw 1Sigma Olomouc 3
Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Teplice
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice (17–15)
Sigma Olomouc (16–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Teplice
Sigma Olomouc
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Teplice
Sigma Olomouc
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Teplice | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 16 |
| xPoints | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Teplice | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.83 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 303 | 403 |
| Passes against per match | 361 | 310 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.7 | 22.4 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Teplice | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| Other | Teplice | Sigma Olomouc |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Matous Trmal (Teplice) | Jan Koutny (Sigma Olomouc) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 23 |
| Save % | 69% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc according to our model?
The model gives Teplice a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Teplice 37%, draw 31%, Sigma Olomouc 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.