01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viktoria Plzeň to win60%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Czech First League11°13,2 mm24 km/h
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Viktoria PlzeňPossession & high pressvs
Mladá BoleslavPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Viktoria Plzeň (60%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.70 (+3 %)
Viktoria Plzeň vs Mladá Boleslav · Czech First League
1 · Viktoria Plzeň 60%X 23%17% Mladá Boleslav · 2
60%
23%
17%
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Analysis: Viktoria Plzeň – Mladá Boleslav
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: The crux of this matchup between Viktoria Plzeň and Mladá Boleslav lies in their differing potential and current form. While the home side holds a significant historical advantage, having not lost to Mladá Boleslav in their four meetings since 2023, it's the visitors who have accumulated more points this season. Yet, beneath the surface, Plzeň's expected metrics suggest a stronger foundation that could tilt the game in their favor.
Viktoria Plzeň has the edge with a 60% probability of winning according to the model, complemented by an expected goals figure of 2.04 compared to Mladá Boleslav's 1.14. While the points on the board favor the visitors with 17 over Plzeň's 10, the expected points lean towards Plzeň at 13.4 to Boleslav's 10.6. This discrepancy between actual and expected performance often signals an impending correction, especially when Plzeň's home form shows they win 59% of their matches in front of their fans.
The head-to-head record is undeniably small, only four games deep, but it reflects Plzeň's ability to get results against Boleslav. However, both teams have possession-based styles, which could lead to a tightly contested affair. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, each at 10%, indicate a competitive match, though the slight edge in expected goals for Plzeň suggests they could nick it by a goal.
With a strong inclination towards over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 60%, the match could see a flurry of activity without overwhelming intent. A 2-1 victory for Plzeň seems the most balanced prediction, aligning with the current betting landscape.
Viktoria PlzeňForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #7xP/match #6Points #10
Key players
- Prince Kwabena AduFxG 0.67 · xT 0.07
- Patrik HrošovskýCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
- Amar MemicRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
Mladá BoleslavForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #14xP/match #10Points #3
Key players
- Solomon JohnRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
- David KozelRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
- Martin SubertLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Viktoria Plzeň – Mladá Boleslav
Predicted score matrix
Mladá Boleslav →
Viktoria Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–14.5%
0–22.7%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.2%
1–19.9%
1–25.5%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.6%
2–19.9%
2–25.6%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.7%
3–23.8%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–15.5%
4+–23.1%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,04–1,14
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.68EV+3%
Over 2,562%
@1.42
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viktoria Plzeň to win60%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Jiří Maxim Panoš to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Jiří Maxim Panoš to score33%
- Roman Macek to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.561% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.561% probability@1.70NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.538% probability@2.68BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viktoria Plzeň | X | 2 · Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.49 | EV+ 2% 4.40 | 5.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.49 | EV+ 2% 4.40 | 5.10 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesViktoria Plzeň 3Draw 1Mladá Boleslav 0
Goals: 10–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Plzen win 59% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viktoria Plzeň
Mladá Boleslav
Viktoria Plzeň (17–17)
Mladá Boleslav (17–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Mladá Boleslav
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viktoria Plzeň
Mladá Boleslav
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 17 |
| xPoints | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.83 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 370 | 369 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.3 | 13 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| Other | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Florian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň) | Jiri Floder (Mladá Boleslav) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 31 |
| Save % | 61% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viktoria Plzeň vs Mladá Boleslav according to our model?
The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viktoria Plzeň 60%, draw 23%, Mladá Boleslav 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.