01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bohemians Praha to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Czech First League12°1,8 mm21 km/h
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Bohemians PrahaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Baník OstravaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Bohemians Praha (49%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.95 (+11 %)
Bohemians Praha vs Baník Ostrava · Czech First League
1 · Bohemians Praha 49%X 28%24% Baník Ostrava · 2
49%
28%
24%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Bohemians Praha – Baník Ostrava
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Bohemians Praha's knack for exploiting counter-attacks and delivering dangerous crosses will likely shape the narrative as they host Baník Ostrava. The visitors, preferring to control possession, face a tactical challenge in breaking down a side that's adept at exploiting gaps left by such dominance. The hosts have effectively used their style to secure three wins in the last four head-to-head encounters since 2023, a small sample but telling of a trend that Ostrava must be wary of.
Despite the visitors holding a slight edge in points this season, the underlying metrics paint a more nuanced picture. Bohemians' expected goals and expected points slightly outclass Ostrava, hinting at an efficiency in turning opportunities into tangible results. With an expected goals tally of 1.48 for the hosts compared to 1.03 for the visitors, it's clear where the sharper attacking edge lies. This match, however, is not expected to be a high-scoring affair with the model suggesting only a 46% chance for over 2.5 goals.
The weather, with rain anticipated, might further dampen the prospects of an open game, potentially suppressing the goal count. In a match where both sides are equally expected to score, Bohemians’ defensive resilience (xGA of 1.4 versus Ostrava's 1.9) might just tip the balance. The most probable outcome according to the models is a tight 1-1 draw, though a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts is also on the cards.
Given the overall dynamics and historical edge, Bohemians at 49% probability offers value. This could be the sharpest angle as the teams clash under potentially slippery conditions.
Bohemians PrahaForm DDLWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #4xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Ladislav AlmásiFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
- Roman KvětCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
- Jan MatousekFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
Baník OstravaForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #9xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Vít ŠkrkoňFxG 0.53 · xT 0.09
- Jiri BoulaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
- Václav JurečkaFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Bohemians Praha – Baník Ostrava
Predicted score matrix
Baník Ostrava →
Bohemians Praha →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–18.0%
0–24.3%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.7%
1–112.7%
1–26.4%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.2%
2–24.7%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.5%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,48–1,03
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.05EV+11%
Over 2,546%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bohemians Praha to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Ladislav Almási to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Ladislav Almási to score29%
- Vojtěch Smrž to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.528% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bohemians Praha | X | 2 · Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBohemians Praha 3Draw 0Baník Ostrava 1
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bohemians Praha
Baník Ostrava
Bohemians Praha (9–11)
Baník Ostrava (7–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bohemians Praha
Baník Ostrava
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bohemians Praha
Baník Ostrava
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bohemians Praha | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 10 |
| xPoints | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Bohemians Praha | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 281 |
| Passes against per match | 314 | 307 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.6 | 19.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Bohemians Praha | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| Other | Bohemians Praha | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Tomas Fruhwald (Bohemians Praha) | Martin Jedlicka (Baník Ostrava) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 22 |
| Save % | 66% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bohemians Praha vs Baník Ostrava according to our model?
The model gives Bohemians Praha a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bohemians Praha 49%, draw 28%, Baník Ostrava 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.