01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Jablonec or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Czech First League11°6,9 mm7 km/h
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Zbrojovka BrnoPossession controlvs
JablonecCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Jablonec (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.88 (+5 %)
Zbrojovka Brno vs Jablonec · Czech First League
1 · Zbrojovka Brno 31%X 31%38% Jablonec · 2
31%
31%
38%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Zbrojovka Brno – Jablonec
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The recent meetings between Zbrojovka Brno and Jablonec are scant on detail, with fewer than six head-to-head encounters to draw meaningful conclusions from. Yet, the model slightly favors the visitors with a 38% win probability. This suggests a tight contest underpinned by Jablonec's disciplined defense, which allows just 0.99 xGA per match compared to Brno’s leaky 1.4.
Brno has a slight points advantage in the table, boasting 16 points to Jablonec's 14. However, underlying metrics tell a more balanced story. Brno's xPoints sit at 14.0, marginally higher than Jablonec's 12.9, indicating Brno might have overperformed slightly relative to their expected results. On the attacking front, both teams are almost neck-and-neck, with Brno at 1.3 xG per match and Jablonec at 1.4, suggesting neither side will easily outscore the other.
The playing styles further highlight the contrast. Brno's preference for possession control will clash with Jablonec's counter-attacking approach. Such stylistic divergences often lead to tactical stalemates, particularly when neither side is distinctly superior. With a 50% chance each for both teams to score and only 44% for over 2.5 goals, expect a match marked by strategic probing rather than relentless attacking.
The most compelling angle here rests in Jablonec’s defensive solidity. The model's slight lean towards them at 38%, combined with their strong defensive metrics, suggests value on the visitors. Bet365 offers FK Jablonec to win at odds of 2.60, a price that merits consideration for those seeking a calculated, data-backed wager. Don’t expect a spectacle; rather, anticipate a controlled affair where Jablonec's structured defense might just tip the balance in a low-scoring game.
Zbrojovka BrnoForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #6xP/match #4Points #6
Key players
- Amadou DanteLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
- Antonín VaníčekFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
- Lucky EzehFxG 0.59 · xT 0.27
JablonecForm DLWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #2xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Dominik HollyFxG 0.50 · xT 0.05
- Vakhtang ChanturishviliRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
- Jan SuchanRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Zbrojovka Brno – Jablonec
Predicted score matrix
Jablonec →
Zbrojovka Brno →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.0%
0–110.8%
0–27.2%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.6%
1–113.3%
1–28.3%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–05.8%
2–17.5%
2–24.8%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.2%
3–12.9%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,16–1,29
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.88EV+5%
Over 2,544%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Jablonec or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Lamin Jawo to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Daniel Vašulín to score23%
- Dušan Pavlović to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.556% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.556% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Under 1.529% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Zbrojovka Brno | X | 2 · Jablonec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | EV+ 0% 3.25 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | EV+ 0% 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Zbrojovka Brno
Jablonec
Zbrojovka Brno (12–12)
Jablonec (11–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Zbrojovka Brno
Jablonec
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Zbrojovka Brno
Jablonec
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zbrojovka Brno | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| xPoints | 14 | 12.9 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Zbrojovka Brno | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 277 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 358 | 291 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.1 | 33.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Zbrojovka Brno | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| Other | Zbrojovka Brno | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Adam Hrdina (Zbrojovka Brno) | Klemen Mihelak (Jablonec) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 12 |
| Save % | 74% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zbrojovka Brno vs Jablonec according to our model?
The model gives Jablonec a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zbrojovka Brno 31%, draw 31%, Jablonec 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.