AGF vs Viborg Prediction: Home win 40% (25 Oct 2026)

Danish Superliga25 October 2026 18:00 CETCeres Park, Aarhus10°17,2 mm54 km/h

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AGFPossession & high press

ViborgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · AGF (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.30 (+5 %)

1 · AGF 40%X 26%34% Viborg · 2

40%

26%

34%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for AGF vs Viborg (Danish Superliga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): AGF win 40%, draw 26%, Viborg win 34%. Expected goals (xG): AGF 1.49, Viborg 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: AGF or draw 66%, Viborg or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: AGF – Viborg

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four wins to one in seven encounters paint a picture of AGF's historical control over Viborg in this matchup. Yet, as the two sides prepare to clash again, it's crucial to note that the visitors have had the upper hand in the broader context of the current season, amassing 20 points to the hosts' 9. The head-to-head sample size remains small, and while past dominance is significant, it doesn't fully capture AGF's underwhelming form this campaign.

AGF's model-backed probability leads at 40%, but Viborg is close behind at 34%. This narrow margin highlights a tight contest, further complicated by the hosts' aggressive possession play clashing with Viborg's effective counter-attacking and cross-heavy strategies. Despite AGF's historically high-scoring meetings with Viborg—averaging 4.0 goals per fixture—current expected goals suggest a more subdued affair, with AGF at 1.49 and Viborg at 1.36.

Weather conditions are set to influence proceedings, with nearly 17.2 mm of rain potentially stifling open play and goal-scoring chances. This damp forecast is integrated into the models, which anticipate a slight lean towards under 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown a propensity to concede: AGF averages 1.6 xGA per match, while Viborg is slightly tighter at 1.2.

For bettors, the sharpest angle may lie in the value found on the under. LeoVegas offers odds of 2.3 on under 2.5 goals, presenting a 5% edge according to the model's 46% rating. Alternatively, Betsafe's 2.28 odds also provide a tempting 4% edge. While AGF's historical edge cannot be dismissed, the conditions and Viborg's current form suggest a more cautious approach might be prudent, with 1-1 emerging as the most likely scoreline.

AGF

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #8xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Kristian ArnstadCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Frederik EmmeryLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.27
Frederik TingagerCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.12

Viborg

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Oliver BundgaardLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.15
Lukas KirkegaardCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Charly NouckLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: AGF – Viborg

Predicted score matrix

Viborg →

AGF →

0–06.1%

0–17.5%

0–25.4%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.2%

1–112.1%

1–28.0%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.4%

2–18.7%

2–25.9%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.2%

3–14.3%

3–23.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,49–1,36

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.30EV+4%

Over 2,554%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance AGF or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance AGF or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Sebastian Vinther Jørgensen to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Sebastian Vinther Jørgensen to score23%
Jeppe Nørregaard Grønning to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.546% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
Under 3.568% probability@1.53LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AGF	X	2 · Viborg
Betsafe	2.42	3.50	2.75
LeoVegas	2.40	3.65	2.80
Nordicbet	2.45	3.50	2.78
Pinnacle	2.42	3.65	2.73

Odds updated 24 Oct, 08:22

Odds movement

10 %

42 %37 %

2.42 → 2.42

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.65 → 3.65

20 %

37 %32 %

2.73 → 2.73

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

AGF 4Draw 2Viborg 1

Goals: 18–10 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

AGF Aarhus dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AGF

Viborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

AGF (15–18)

Viborg (18–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AGF

Viborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AGF

Viborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	AGF	Viborg
Points	9	20
xPoints	13.9	18.5
xG per match	1.5	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.27

Playing style	AGF	Viborg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.57	0.46
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	24	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.22
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	419	384
Passes against per match	323	410
Switches of play per match	22.5	31.1
Long balls per match	26	32

Set pieces	AGF	Viborg
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	6.2	5
Corners against per match	4.1	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.64

Other	AGF	Viborg
Throw-in control	0.72	0.71

The goalkeepers	Mads Hedenstad Christiansen (AGF)	Kasper Kiilerich (Viborg)
Saves	19	34
Save %	58%	77%
xG prevented	39%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AGF

Fixtures, form & tips

Viborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AGF vs Viborg according to our model?

The model gives AGF a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AGF 40%, draw 26%, Viborg 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in AGF vs Viborg?

The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for AGF and 1.36 for Viborg, 2.85 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

AGF or draw (1X) 66%, Viborg or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.