01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Horsens to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Danish SuperligaCASA Arena, Horsens10°17,2 mm47 km/h
Läs på svenska
HorsensPossession controlvs
SønderjyskELow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Horsens (48%)
Horsens vs SønderjyskE · Danish Superliga
1 · Horsens 48%X 27%24% SønderjyskE · 2
48%
27%
24%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Horsens vs SønderjyskE (Danish Superliga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Horsens win 48%, draw 27%, SønderjyskE win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Horsens 1.71, SønderjyskE 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Horsens or draw 76%, SønderjyskE or draw 52%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Horsens – SønderjyskE
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
When Horsens hosts Sønderjyske, their contrasting styles will shape the game's rhythm. Horsens thrives on possession control, likely dictating the tempo, while the visitors lean on a low block and direct play. The model gives the hosts a 48% chance of victory, highlighting their slight tactical edge.
The numbers suggest a balanced encounter, but Horsens has the upper hand in recent form, boasting 13 points to Sønderjyske's 8. Nevertheless, the expected points indicate a closer contest, with Sønderjyske marginally ahead at 13.1 to 12.0. The expected goals align with this, favoring the hosts at 1.71 compared to the visitors' 1.17. It's hard to overlook Horsens's control in front of their home crowd, even as Sønderjyske's defensive setup aims to absorb pressure.
A small head-to-head sample since 2022 shows one match with Horsens emerging victorious. This singular meeting holds less weight than the present form and stats, which both edge toward a home win. However, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood of both teams finding the net, there’s room for a competitive scoreline. The expected rain could muddy the attacking flow but is already reflected in the xG numbers.
For those seeking value, Nordicbet offers Horsens at odds of 2.42, and Betsafe at 2.4, both presenting a notable edge of around 17% and 16%, respectively. Capitalizing on the model’s 48% probability for a home win, this play looks attractive with Horsens likely to edge it 2-1.
HorsensForm WLDDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #11xP/match #12Points #6
Key players
- Ivan MilicevicLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.25
- Alagie SaineLBxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
- Yamirou OuorouRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.12
SønderjyskEForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #9xP/match #11Points #11
Key players
- Maxime SoulasCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Mohamed Cherif HaidaraCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.00
- Ismaïl SeydiRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Horsens – SønderjyskE
Predicted score matrix
SønderjyskE →
Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.2%
0–23.8%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–09.3%
1–111.5%
1–26.6%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.6%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.5%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,17
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.10
Over 2,555%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Horsens to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Ivan Miličević to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Ivan Miličević to score26%
- Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Horsens48% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Horsens48% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Horsens48% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Horsens | X | 2 · SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 16% 2.40 | 3.45 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 17% 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 17% 2.42 | 3.46 | 2.85 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 06:19
Odds movement
1+10 %
43 %38 %
2.20 → 2.42
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.54 → 3.46
2-7 %
35 %30 %
3.05 → 2.85
Over 2,5+5 %
58 %53 %
1.66 → 1.75
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesHorsens 1Draw 0SønderjyskE 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 7)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Horsens
SønderjyskE
Horsens (18–19)
SønderjyskE (16–24)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Horsens
SønderjyskE
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Horsens
SønderjyskE
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Horsens | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 8 |
| xPoints | 12 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| Playing style | Horsens | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 302 |
| Passes against per match | 412 | 454 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.3 | 24.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Horsens | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| Other | Horsens | SønderjyskE |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Delac (Horsens) | Nick Shinton (SønderjyskE) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 15 |
| Save % | 67% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Horsens vs SønderjyskE according to our model?
The model gives Horsens a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Horsens 48%, draw 27%, SønderjyskE 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Horsens vs SønderjyskE?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Horsens and 1.17 for SønderjyskE, 2.88 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Horsens or draw (1X) 76%, SønderjyskE or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.