Midtjylland vs Lyngby Prediction: Home win 58% (25 Oct 2026)

Danish Superliga25 October 2026 14:00 CETMCH Arena, Herning9°22,2 mm45 km/h

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MidtjyllandPossession control

LyngbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Midtjylland (58%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lyngby @ 6.50 (+34 %)

1 · Midtjylland 58%X 21%21% Lyngby · 2

58%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Midtjylland vs Lyngby (Danish Superliga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Midtjylland win 58%, draw 21%, Lyngby win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Midtjylland 1.91, Lyngby 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Midtjylland or draw 79%, Lyngby or draw 42%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Midtjylland – Lyngby

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Midtjylland's 58% chance of victory highlights their strong form and positional play advantage. Unbeaten in their last 11 league matches, the hosts have shown resilience and consistency. They've scored in 12 consecutive league games, underscoring their offensive threat. With a win rate of 70% at home from a smaller sample of 37 matches, their fortress-like reputation stands tall.

Lyngby, known for their possession and high pressing, face an uphill task. Despite a mere 21% probability of winning, they possess a marginal edge in xPoints and xG per match, suggesting potential for surprise. However, the visitors have only managed 8 points, compared to Midtjylland's 25, reflecting their struggles in converting playstyle into results. The head-to-head record, albeit small, favors the hosts with two wins and a draw.

The model leans towards Midtjylland, but the high rainfall of 22.2 mm could dampen goal-scoring opportunities. The over 2.5 goals market stands at 57%, while both teams to score is set at 56%. For those eyeing a speculative angle, the away win offers value at odds of 6.5 with LeoVegas and Nordicbet, and 6.4 with Betsafe, promising a significant edge of over 30% according to the model's assessment.

Midtjylland

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #6xP/match #6Points #2

Key players

Darío OsorioRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.45
Mads Bech SorensenCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Friday Ubi EtimFxG 0.43 · xT 0.09

Lyngby

Form WDLLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #5xP/match #4Points #12

Key players

Casper WintherCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Gustav FrauloRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.21
Lauge SandgravCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Midtjylland – Lyngby

Predicted score matrix

Lyngby →

Midtjylland →

0–05.5%

0–15.1%

0–22.8%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.6%

1–110.7%

1–25.4%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.0%

3–16.3%

3–23.3%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.5%

4+–14.7%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,91–1,05

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.68EV+16%

Over 2,557%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Midtjylland to win58%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Midtjylland to win58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Friday Ubi Etim to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Friday Ubi Etim to score33%
Casper Kaarsbo Winther to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lyngby21% probability@6.50NordicbetEV+34%reference odds
2 · Lyngby21% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
2 · Lyngby21% probability@6.25LeoVegasEV+29%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Midtjylland	X	2 · Lyngby
Betsafe	1.43	EV+ 2% 4.80	EV+ 32% 6.40
LeoVegas	1.45	EV+ 6% 5.00	EV+ 29% 6.25
Nordicbet	1.45	EV+ 3% 4.85	EV+ 34% 6.50
Pinnacle	1.45	EV+ 3% 4.82	EV+ 25% 6.05

Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

68 %63 %

1.40 → 1.45

X-5 %

22 %17 %

5.09 → 4.82

2-8 %

17 %12 %

6.56 → 6.05

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Midtjylland 2Draw 1Lyngby 0

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
Midtjylland have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Midtjylland win 70% of their home matches all-time (37 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Midtjylland

Lyngby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Midtjylland (21–11)

Lyngby (15–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Midtjylland

Lyngby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Midtjylland

Lyngby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Midtjylland	Lyngby
Points	25	8
xPoints	15.2	16.3
xG per match	1.3	1.7
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.26

Playing style	Midtjylland	Lyngby
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.65
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	31	34
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.72	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	309	365
Passes against per match	316	378
Switches of play per match	30.6	12.2
Long balls per match	41	24

Set pieces	Midtjylland	Lyngby
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.17
Corners per match	5.1	5.1
Corners against per match	4.2	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.67

Other	Midtjylland	Lyngby
Throw-in control	0.74	0.66

The goalkeepers	Elias Olafsson (Midtjylland)	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)
Saves	22	30
Save %	71%	56%
xG prevented	41%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Midtjylland

Fixtures, form & tips

Lyngby

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Midtjylland vs Lyngby according to our model?

The model gives Midtjylland a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Midtjylland 58%, draw 21%, Lyngby 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Midtjylland vs Lyngby?

The model expects 1.91 goals (xG) for Midtjylland and 1.05 for Lyngby, 2.96 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Midtjylland or draw (1X) 79%, Lyngby or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.