01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bristol City or draw (X2)73%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
EFL ChampionshipThe Valley, London13°0,2 mm16 km/h
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Charlton AthleticLow block & directvs
Bristol CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Bristol City (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.77 (+8 %)
Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City · EFL Championship
1 · Charlton Athletic 26%X 31%43% Bristol City · 2
26%
31%
43%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Charlton Athletic – Bristol City
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Two teams, both characterized by low defensive intensity and direct play, face off: Charlton Athletic and Bristol City. Yet the numbers tell a story of subtle edges favoring the visitors. Bristol City, with a slight advantage in model probabilities at 43%, leans toward victory. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, split the narrative between a draw and a narrow win for the visitors, both clocking in at 13%.
Charlton's struggle is evident in their xG per match of just 0.81 compared to Bristol's 1.2. This gap is mirrored in the expected goals allowed, with Bristol City's defense marginally tighter. Yet, these teams are closer than they seem at first glance — their xPoints, despite an edge to City, suggest only a narrow differential. That said, the small sample of head-to-head matches offers only a whisper of guidance, with no Charlton victories in the two encounters.
Goals appear likely to be scarce. The probability for over 2.5 goals stands at just 39%, while both teams to score is pegged at 45%. The analytical model and playing styles suggest a terse clash with limited scoring opportunities. Value emerges for those wagering on fewer goals: under 2.5 goals at 1.727 with LeoVegas shows a 5% edge, and under 1.5 at 3.1 offers the same edge. Even a more conservative bet on under 3.5 goals at 1.27 presents a respectable 3% edge.
In sum, Bristol City holds the upper hand, albeit slightly. The forecast leans toward a pragmatic, low-scoring affair with a tentative nod to the visitors; a 0-1 result is on the cards. Highlighting the opportunity in the market, under 2.5 goals at 1.727 stands out as the sharpest angle for bettors seeking value.
Charlton AthleticForm DLDDL
League ranking xG #24xGA #18xT #23xP/match #17Points #10
Key players
- Karlan Laughton Ahearne-GrantFxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
- Miles Lester LeaburnFxG 0.19 · xT 0.05
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
Bristol CityForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #14xGA #9xT #18xP/match #11Points #9
Key players
- Lorent TolajFxG 0.44 · xT 0.02
- Joe WilliamsCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Rob DickieCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Charlton Athletic – Bristol City
Predicted score matrix
Bristol City →
Charlton Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.0%
0–113.2%
0–28.8%
0–33.8%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–09.8%
1–113.4%
1–28.4%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–04.9%
2–16.3%
2–24.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.0%
3–21.3%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.0-29%
Expected goals
0,96–1,29
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@1.77EV+8%
Over 2,539%
@2.04
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bristol City or draw (X2)73%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Lorent Tolaj to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Lorent Tolaj to score27%
- Jason Paul Knight to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.561% probability@1.77BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.561% probability@1.77NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
- Under 1.534% probability@3.18BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Charlton Athletic | X | 2 · Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.05 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | 3.05 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCharlton Athletic 0Draw 1Bristol City 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
Charlton Athletic (7–10)
Bristol City (11–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Charlton Athletic
Bristol City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.3 | 11.1 |
| xG per match | 0.81 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 244 | 277 |
| Passes against per match | 463 | 361 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 17 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| Other | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic) | Samuel Lloyd Tickle (Bristol City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 12 |
| Save % | 74% | 52% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 20% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Derby County – Wrexham10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City according to our model?
The model gives Bristol City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Charlton Athletic 26%, draw 31%, Bristol City 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.