01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Wrexham or draw (X2)66%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL ChampionshipPride Park, Derby10°0,6 mm22 km/h
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Derby CountyLow block & directvs
WrexhamLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Wrexham (39%)
Derby County vs Wrexham · EFL Championship
1 · Derby County 33%X 28%39% Wrexham · 2
33%
28%
39%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Derby County – Wrexham
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The betting angle lies in Wrexham's pricing, which aligns with their slight statistical advantage.
Wait, I need to output the full corrected text. Let me reconsider: the market odds claim ("Market odds at Unibet offer value on Wrexham at 2.90") is not supported by the FACTS provided, so it should be removed as an unsupported claim.
Wrexham's slightly superior form and metrics set the stage for a potential upset against Derby County. The model gives Wrexham a 39% chance of victory, shading them over the hosts at 33%. This narrow edge is mirrored across various data points: Wrexham's 10 points from the season outpace Derby’s 5, and their xG and xGA figures further underscore their current effectiveness. The head-to-head record is small and shows a draw and a Wrexham win, which is less telling than their current form.
Both teams share a low defence, direct playing style that typically results in straightforward, end-to-end action. Expected goals suggest a close match with Wrexham nudging ahead at 1.39 to Derby’s 1.27. The probability of a 1-1 draw is highest at 13%, but Wrexham edging it at 0-1 or 1-2, each at 9%, is very plausible.
The over/under market sits evenly balanced at 50% for over 2.5 goals, indicating no clear lean on a high or low-scoring game. With 54% for both teams to score, the data hints at a cagey but competitive affair. The betting angle lies in Wrexham's slight statistical advantage.
Derby CountyForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #21xGA #24xT #17xP/match #23Points #22
Key players
- Joe WardRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.25
- Alex MowattCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Mohammed Gadafi FuseiniLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
WrexhamForm WDDLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #8xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Kieffer MooreFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05
- Benjamin WhitemanCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
- Max George CleworthCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: Derby County – Wrexham
Predicted score matrix
Wrexham →
Derby County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.4%
0–19.4%
0–26.7%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.6%
1–112.7%
1–28.6%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.7%
2–17.9%
2–25.4%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.3%
3–22.3%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,27–1,39
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.80
Over 2,550%
@2.01
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Wrexham or draw (X2)66%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Joshua Dean Windass to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Joshua Dean Windass to score20%
- George David Dobson to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Wrexham39% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- 2 · Wrexham39% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Derby County | X | 2 · Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.65 | 3.30 | EV+ 3% 2.62 |
| LeoVegas | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.65 | 3.30 | EV+ 3% 2.62 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDerby County 0Draw 1Wrexham 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Derby County
Wrexham
Derby County (7–14)
Wrexham (9–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Derby County
Wrexham
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Derby County
Wrexham
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Derby County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Derby County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 317 | 367 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 412 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 21.9 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Derby County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| Other | Derby County | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County) | Anthony Patterson (Wrexham) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 22 |
| Save % | 68% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham City10 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Sheffield United – Lincoln City10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Watford – Burnley10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Derby County vs Wrexham according to our model?
The model gives Wrexham a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derby County 33%, draw 28%, Wrexham 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.