01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
EFL ChampionshipBramall Lane, Sheffield11°2,8 mm22 km/h
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Sheffield UnitedLow block & directvs
Lincoln CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Lincoln City (43%)
Sheffield United vs Lincoln City · EFL Championship
1 · Sheffield United 28%X 29%43% Lincoln City · 2
28%
29%
43%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Sheffield United – Lincoln City
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Sheffield United face Lincoln City in a clash where both teams share a direct and low-defense playing style. This should make for a scrappy encounter with each side looking to exploit any defensive lapses. The model leans towards an away win, giving Lincoln City a 43% chance of victory. With the visitors having a slight edge in both points (11 vs 9) and expected points (14.2 vs 10.4), there’s reason to favor them.
The likely scorelines suggest a tight battle, with 1-1 the most probable result at 14%. Not far behind are the 0-1 and 0-0 outcomes, pointing to a low-scoring affair. Expected goals further underline Lincoln's edge, recording 1.22 to the hosts' 1.04. Although neither side boasts a formidable defense, United have a slightly worse record, conceding more expected goals per match. This defensive frailty could tilt the match in Lincoln City's favor.
Given the rain forecast, which typically suppresses goal-scoring, the model's expectation of under 2.5 goals at 60% becomes even more compelling. This is already factored into the numbers, providing a strong lean towards a scoreline that doesn’t exceed two goals. The probability of both teams scoring is under fifty percent, reinforcing the idea of a cagey contest.
Lincoln City presents the sharpest betting angle here at odds of 3.45 with LeoVegas, aligning with the model’s 43% win probability. Likewise, the under 2.5 goals market offers value at 1.85, reflecting the expected low-scoring nature of this matchup. Those looking for an even bolder play might consider under 1.5 goals at 3.4, though the model rates this outcome at a smaller 33% chance.
Sheffield UnitedForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #24xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- Tom CannonFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01
- Callum OhareLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
- Sydie PeckCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Lincoln CityForm DDWWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #14xP/match #2Points #12
Key players
- Ben HouseFxG 0.25 · xT 0.02
- Freddie DraperFxG 0.17 · xT 0.03
- Ivan VarfolomieievFxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Sheffield United – Lincoln City
Predicted score matrix
Lincoln City →
Sheffield United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.8%
0–112.3%
0–27.8%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.6%
1–28.1%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–05.6%
2–16.9%
2–24.2%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.4%
3–21.5%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,04–1,22
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.85EV+12%
Over 2,540%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lincoln City or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Thomas David Bayliss to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Thomas David Bayliss to score20%
- Ivan Varfolomieiev to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Lincoln City43% probability@3.45LeoVegasEV+48%reference odds
- Under 1.533% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.560% probability@1.85LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sheffield United | X | 2 · Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.45 | EV+ 48% 3.45 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:04
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sheffield United
Lincoln City
Sheffield United (9–11)
Lincoln City (7–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Lincoln City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sheffield United
Lincoln City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sheffield United | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 14.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Sheffield United | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| xT per match | 0.55 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.6 |
| Passes per match | 237 | 195 |
| Passes against per match | 404 | 428 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.5 | 18.8 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Sheffield United | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 7.6 | 8.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| Other | Sheffield United | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Cooper (Sheffield United) | George Wickens (Lincoln City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 28 |
| Save % | 71% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- West Ham United – Queens Park Rangers9 October 2026
- Southampton – Portsmouth10 October 2026
- Swansea City – Norwich City10 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Charlton Athletic – Bristol City10 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- West Bromwich Albion – Birmingham City10 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Derby County – Wrexham10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Watford – Burnley10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Bolton Wanderers – Stoke City10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sheffield United vs Lincoln City according to our model?
The model gives Lincoln City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sheffield United 28%, draw 29%, Lincoln City 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.