01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
EFL ChampionshipSwansea.com Stadium, Swansea12°0,6 mm23 km/h
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Swansea CityPossession controlvs
Norwich CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Swansea City (45%)
Swansea City vs Norwich City · EFL Championship
1 · Swansea City 45%X 30%26% Norwich City · 2
45%
30%
26%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Swansea City – Norwich City
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Swansea City sits with a 45% win probability against Norwich City, a side struggling with just a 26% chance to claim victory. The 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 12%, but Swansea's 2-1 and 1-0 wins both hover at 9%, suggesting a slight edge for the hosts. Despite both teams favoring possession-based play, Swansea's current form and points tally offer them a tangible advantage on the pitch.
While the Swans hold a slim 17-9 points edge, their xPoints trail behind Norwich, 10.7 to 12.8, indicating the visitors might be underperforming against their expected outcomes. Norwich City's offensive metrics, with an xG of 1.7 per match, also suggest potential for an upset, though their defensive vulnerability (xGA 1.4) could be exploited by a Swansea side showing a slightly better defensive record (xGA 1.3).
Value hunters should note LeoVegas offering Swansea at 2.45, considering the model's 45% rating provides a 9% edge here — a clearer opportunity than backing the draw. While a 1-1 draw at 3.4 odds offers some edge too, the stronger play involves backing the home side in a match likely to exceed 2.5 goals.
Swansea CityForm WDLWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #13xP/match #14Points #1
Key players
- Josh KeyRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
- Josh TymonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Filip LissahRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Norwich CityForm LWWLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #17xT #11xP/match #5Points #17
Key players
- Andre Chance BrooksRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.04
- Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Oscar SchwartauCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Swansea City – Norwich City
Predicted score matrix
Norwich City →
Swansea City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–16.8%
0–24.3%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.3%
1–111.9%
1–27.0%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.4%
2–25.6%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.1%
3–23.0%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–12.9%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,62–1,20
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.04
Over 2,554%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Swansea City or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Moussa Kounfolo Yeo to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Moussa Kounfolo Yeo to score20%
- Pelle Elkjær Mattsson to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Swansea City45% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Swansea City45% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Swansea City45% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Swansea City | X | 2 · Norwich City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 2.45 | EV+ 2% 3.45 | 2.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 9% 2.45 | EV+ 1% 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 2.45 | EV+ 2% 3.45 | 2.70 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSwansea City 2Draw 1Norwich City 1
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Swansea City
Norwich City
Swansea City (13–6)
Norwich City (16–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Swansea City
Norwich City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Swansea City
Norwich City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Swansea City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 9 |
| xPoints | 10.7 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Swansea City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 0.75 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 454 | 344 |
| Passes against per match | 280 | 297 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.5 | 22 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Swansea City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Other | Swansea City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City) | Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 18 |
| Save % | 76% | 51% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Swansea City vs Norwich City according to our model?
The model gives Swansea City a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Swansea City 45%, draw 30%, Norwich City 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.