Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship19 September 2026Carrow Road, Norwich14°1,8 mm23 km/h

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Norwich CityPossession & high press

Bolton WanderersPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Norwich City (55%)

1 · Norwich City 55%X 23%22% Bolton Wanderers · 2

55%

23%

22%

Analysis: Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Norwich City enters this match with a significant edge. The hosts boast a 55% win probability, underscored by their superior xG of 1.9 compared to Bolton's 1.2. This xG disparity illustrates the attacking prowess Norwich has wielded this season, further reflected in their 9 points to Bolton's 4. The visitors have been struggling, evidenced by their four-match losing streak, which doesn't bode well against a team that controls possession and presses effectively.

The numbers suggest a narrow victory for the Canaries, with the model's most likely scorelines being 1-1, 2-1, or 1-0. While Bolton's possession control might typically offer some defensive stability, their xGA of 1.8 per match highlights a vulnerability, especially against a side like Norwich, which is efficient in converting chances. The expected goals totals indicate a likely outcome of over 2.5 goals, supported by a 57% probability.

For bettors, the value lies in backing Norwich, aligning with the model’s lean and Norwich’s seasonal metrics. This value is reinforced by Bolton's current form, painting a picture of a match where Norwich’s methodical approach edges out a win.

Norwich City

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #17xP/match #2Points #10

Key players

Oscar SchwartauLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.04
Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.39 · xT 0.12
Andre Chance BrooksRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.04

Bolton Wanderers

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #23xT #18xP/match #22Points #21

Key players

Ethan ErhahonCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Xavier SimonsRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
Samuel George DalbyFxG 0.25 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers

Predicted score matrix

Bolton Wanderers →

Norwich City →

0–05.4%

0–15.7%

0–23.5%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.9%

1–111.1%

1–26.3%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.0%

3–15.9%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,81–1,16

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Norwich City to win55%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Norwich City to win55%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mathias Damm Kvistgaarden to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mathias Damm Kvistgaarden to score26%
Christian Kai John Forino-Joseph to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Bolton Wanderers have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Norwich City

Bolton Wanderers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Norwich City (10–9)

Bolton Wanderers (6–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Norwich City

Bolton Wanderers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Norwich City

Bolton Wanderers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Norwich City	Bolton Wanderers
Points	9	4
xPoints	10.7	6.1
xG per match	1.9	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.28

Playing style	Norwich City	Bolton Wanderers
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.34
Field tilt	0.59	0.55
xT per match	0.9	0.84
xTA per match	0.96	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.7
Passes per match	340	362
Passes against per match	296	294
Switches of play per match	22.4	33.4
Long balls per match	28	37

Set pieces	Norwich City	Bolton Wanderers
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.9	6.6
Corners against per match	5.4	4.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.72

Other	Norwich City	Bolton Wanderers
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City)	Jack Elliott Bonham (Bolton Wanderers)
Saves	15	15
Save %	63%	63%
xG prevented	41%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Norwich City

Fixtures, form & tips

Bolton Wanderers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers according to our model?

The model gives Norwich City a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norwich City 55%, draw 23%, Bolton Wanderers 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.