01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Burton Albion or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
EFL League OnePirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent7°29 km/h
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Burton AlbionLow block & directvs
Leyton OrientBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Burton Albion (38%)
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient · EFL League One
1 · Burton Albion 38%X 30%32% Leyton Orient · 2
38%
30%
32%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient (EFL League One, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Burton Albion win 38%, draw 30%, Leyton Orient win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Burton Albion 1.44, Leyton Orient 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Burton Albion or draw 68%, Leyton Orient or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Burton Albion – Leyton Orient
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With Burton Albion's direct approach set against Leyton Orient's balanced and physical play, the clash promises a fascinating tactical battle. The hosts, Burton, have been defensively vulnerable, conceding 1.4 xGA per match, but they possess a slight edge in overall form with 12 points compared to Orient's 11. Despite this, their offensive output, with an xG of just 0.76 per match, raises doubts about their ability to capitalize on opportunities.
Leyton Orient, meanwhile, boasts a marginally better attacking profile, averaging 0.83 xG per match. Their physical style could pose challenges for Burton’s low defensive setup. However, their defense hasn't been particularly robust either, with an xGA of 1.6, suggesting potential openings for the home side.
The head-to-head record is evenly balanced, with both teams securing a win each and drawing twice in their four encounters since 2023. With such a small sample size, it's wise not to weigh these results too heavily against current form and expected goals. The model leans towards Burton due to their marginally better xPoints and home advantage, but the probability of a draw remains significant at 30%.
In terms of goals, the over 2.5 line sits almost evenly at 51%, while both teams to score stands at 55%. This indicates a slight tilt towards a scoring game but not overwhelmingly so. The most likely scorelines reinforce this view, with 1-1 being the top prediction at 13%, followed by 1-0 and 2-1 to Burton, both at 9%.
For those seeking value, the odds slightly favor Burton at various bookmakers, reflecting both their home advantage and the subtle statistical edges. A narrow Burton win or a 1-1 draw seem the most logical outcomes, with the model suggesting the home side's upper hand in a tight contest.
Burton AlbionForm LDWLL
League ranking xG #24xGA #14xT #20xP/match #16Points #10
Key players
- Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
- Finn DelapCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
- Kgaogelo ChaukeCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
Leyton OrientForm DLWLD
League ranking xG #23xGA #18xT #24xP/match #21Points #14
Key players
- Will ForresterCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
- Alex GilbertRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Idris El MizouniCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Burton Albion – Leyton Orient
Predicted score matrix
Leyton Orient →
Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–18.1%
0–25.4%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.2%
1–112.5%
1–27.8%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.2%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,44–1,28
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.85
Over 2,551%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Burton Albion or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Caylan David Vickers to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Caylan David Vickers to score22%
- Idris El Mizouni to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Burton Albion | X | 2 · Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Leyton Orient win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.80 to 2.55 (−9%).
1+5 %
40 %35 %
2.38 → 2.50
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.30
2-9 %
37 %32 %
2.80 → 2.55
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesBurton Albion 1Draw 2Leyton Orient 1
Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
Burton Albion (14–16)
Leyton Orient (13–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPoints | 12.4 | 9.6 |
| xG per match | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| Passes per match | 280 | 250 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 271 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.6 | 16.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.26 | 0.55 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| Other | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion) | Nathan Joseph Baxter (Leyton Orient) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 20 |
| Save % | 60% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Reading – Leyton Orient21 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Wigan Athletic24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Luton Town – Leicester City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bromley – Peterborough United24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Doncaster Rovers – Sheffield Wednesday24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oxford United – Bradford City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wimbledon – Wycombe Wanderers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Cambridge United – Plymouth Argyle24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient according to our model?
The model gives Burton Albion a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burton Albion 38%, draw 30%, Leyton Orient 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Burton Albion and 1.28 for Leyton Orient, 2.72 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Burton Albion or draw (1X) 68%, Leyton Orient or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.