Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction: Home win 48% (24 Oct 2026)

EFL League One24 October 2026 16:00 CESTLamex Stadium, Stevenage6°27 km/h

Läs på svenska

StevenagePossession control

Milton Keynes DonsLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Stevenage (48%)

1 · Stevenage 48%X 31%21% Milton Keynes Dons · 2

48%

31%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons (EFL League One, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Stevenage win 48%, draw 31%, Milton Keynes Dons win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Stevenage 1.58, Milton Keynes Dons 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Stevenage or draw 79%, Milton Keynes Dons or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Stevenage's 48% win probability, combined with their edge in points and xPoints, underscores their current form superiority over Milton Keynes Dons. The model suggests a controlled game, with the hosts expected to dominate possession. Milton Keynes Dons, meanwhile, are likely to lean on their defensive setup and more direct style, which might struggle against Stevenage's organized defense.

The notable contrast in expected goals (xG) highlights the tension: Stevenage generates 1.1 xG per match, while the visitors manage a higher 1.6 xG. However, this attacking edge is tempered by Milton Keynes Dons' vulnerable defense, conceding 1.6 xGA per match compared to Stevenage's solid 0.93 xGA. This disparity suggests that while the visitors might create chances, breaking down Stevenage's defense will be a challenge.

The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, reinforce a low-scoring tilt with potential for a narrow home win. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 48%, leaning towards the under seems prudent. Although the goal market appears tight, the hosts' composure might just tip the scales.

Stevenage

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #2xT #18xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Luther James WildinRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Terence Owen VancootenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05

Milton Keynes Dons

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #17xT #7xP/match #15Points #23

Key players

Aaron Graham John CollinsFxG 0.43 · xT 0.13
Callum Thomas Owen PatersonRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
Daniel Tan BarlaserCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons

Predicted score matrix

Milton Keynes Dons →

Stevenage →

0–07.8%

0–17.2%

0–23.8%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.5%

1–112.3%

1–26.1%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.3%

2–19.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.9%

3–15.0%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,58–1,01

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.73

Over 2,548%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Stevenage to win48%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Stevenage to win48%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score28%
Marvin Akpereogene Paul Edem Ekpiteta to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Stevenage48% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stevenage	X	2 · Milton Keynes Dons
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 2.30	3.15	2.95

Odds updated 18 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

42 %37 %

2.30 → 2.30

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.15

2+2 %

34 %29 %

2.90 → 2.95

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Stevenage

Milton Keynes Dons

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Stevenage (12–8)

Milton Keynes Dons (9–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Stevenage

Milton Keynes Dons

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Stevenage

Milton Keynes Dons

The teams in numbers

Performance	Stevenage	Milton Keynes Dons
Points	12	6
xPoints	12.2	10.9
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	0.93	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.47

Playing style	Stevenage	Milton Keynes Dons
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.46	0.38
xT per match	0.86	1.1
xTA per match	0.71	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	34	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.63	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.61
Passes per match	231	251
Passes against per match	339	333
Switches of play per match	21.9	24.4
Long balls per match	39	39

Set pieces	Stevenage	Milton Keynes Dons
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.1
Corners per match	3.9	5.1
Corners against per match	5.1	6.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.47

Other	Stevenage	Milton Keynes Dons
Throw-in control	0.75	0.69

The goalkeepers	Carl Piergianni (Stevenage)	Craig Macgillivray (Milton Keynes Dons)
Saves	9	21
Save %	100%	70%
xG prevented	100%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Stevenage

Fixtures, form & tips

Milton Keynes Dons

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons according to our model?

The model gives Stevenage a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stevenage 48%, draw 31%, Milton Keynes Dons 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?

The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Stevenage and 1.01 for Milton Keynes Dons, 2.59 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Stevenage or draw (1X) 79%, Milton Keynes Dons or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.