EFL League OneEco-Power Stadium, Doncaster16°0,1 mm18 km/h

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    Doncaster RoversDoncaster RoversPossession control
    2–3
    Plymouth ArgylePlymouth ArgyleLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Doncaster Rovers (37%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+20 %)

    Doncaster Rovers – Plymouth Argyle · EFL League One

    1 · Doncaster Rovers 37%X 26%37% Plymouth Argyle · 2

    Analysis: Doncaster Rovers – Plymouth Argyle

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A balanced 37% win probability for both Doncaster Rovers and Plymouth Argyle suggests a tight match with no clear favorite. Despite the statistical equality, the model leans slightly toward Doncaster, perhaps due to their defensive solidity, evident from an xGA of 0.85 per match compared to Plymouth's 1.5. The hosts' possession control could stifle Plymouth's direct approach, setting the stage for a tense midfield battle.

    Though the head-to-head record favors Plymouth with two wins since 2023, the small sample size limits its weight against current form and expected goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting evenly matched expected goals of 1.23 for Doncaster and 1.20 for Plymouth. With a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 50%, a low-scoring draw seems plausible. This cautious outlook aligns with Doncaster's control-oriented play against Plymouth's counterattacking threat.

    For bettors seeking value, consider the under 0.5 goals market available at 13.0 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model rates this event at 9%, yielding a significant 20% edge. While unlikely, a goalless draw is not out of the question given the strategic clash and defensive tendencies on show.

    Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers
    Form WLDDD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #2xT #20xP/match #9Points #21
    Key players
    • Jack Christopher SeniorLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Alfie Ben MayFxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
    • Owen John Edward BaileyRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.08
    Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle
    Form WLDWL
    League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #11xP/match #8Points #16
    Key players
    • Bradley Ryan IbrahimFxG 0.15 · xT 0.00
    • Xavier Casmier AmaechiRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.00
    • Ronan CurtisLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Doncaster Rovers 37% · Draw 26% · Plymouth Argyle 37%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - PlymouthBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,42fair 13,73-39 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - DoncasterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,30fair 13,06-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Doncaster Rovers – Plymouth Argyle

    Predicted score matrix

    Plymouth Argyle →
    Doncaster Rovers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.2%
    0–110.2%
    0–26.3%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–010.5%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.7%
    2–18.0%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,23–1,20
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @2.07EV+12%
    Over 2,544%
    @1.80

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Luke James Molyneux to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel Pepple to score20%
    • Caleb Cassius Watts to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 0.59% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Doncaster RoversX2 · Plymouth Argyle
    Bet3652.403.402.63
    Betfair Exchange1.521.651.27
    Betsafe2.423.40
    EV+ 0%
    2.72
    Betsson2.423.40
    EV+ 0%
    2.72
    Nordicbet2.423.40
    EV+ 0%
    2.72
    Pinnacle2.563.622.66

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 08:32

    Odds movement

    1+7 %
    41 %36 %

    2.39 → 2.56

    X+2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.54 → 3.62

    2-5 %
    37 %32 %

    2.80 → 2.66

    Over 2,5+1 %
    56 %51 %

    1.76 → 1.78

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Doncaster Rovers 0Draw 0Plymouth Argyle 2
    Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Doncaster Rovers
    Plymouth Argyle
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Doncaster Rovers (4–5)
    Plymouth Argyle (4–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 147 passningar, xT 0.1ByrneRobbie Gotts: 125 passningar, xT 0.32GottsJohn-Alan McGrath: 111 passningar, xT -0.01McGrathTommy James Simkin: 108 passningar, xT 0.22SimkinJack Christopher Senior: 91 passningar, xT 0.33SeniorSeán Grehan: 89 passningar, xT 0.35GrehanOwen John Edward Bailey: 83 passningar, xT 0.24BaileyAlfie Ben May: 62 passningar, xT 0.28MayGeorge Broadbent: 62 passningar, xT 0.17BroadbentIsaac Hutchinson: 47 passningar, xT -0.02HutchinsonJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09Sterry
    Plymouth Argyle
    Harvey David White: 116 passningar, xT 0.32WhiteAlex Duncan Hartridge: 100 passningar, xT 0.43HartridgeWesley Nathan Hylton Harding: 97 passningar, xT 0.71HardingJulio Pleguezuelo: 75 passningar, xT 0.14PleguezueloMurphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper: 62 passningar, xT 0.21CooperAlexander Paul Mitchell: 57 passningar, xT 0.24MitchellRonan Curtis: 55 passningar, xT 0.73CurtisMathias Ross Jensen: 48 passningar, xT 0.18JensenTyreeq Jamal Adeshina Oliveira Bakinson: 45 passningar, xT 0.15BakinsonBradley Ryan Ibrahim: 36 passningar, xT 0.01IbrahimXavier Casmier Amaechi: 27 passningar, xT -0.01Amaechi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 147 passningar, xT 0.1ByrneRobbie Gotts: 125 passningar, xT 0.32GottsJohn-Alan McGrath: 111 passningar, xT -0.01McGrathTommy James Simkin: 108 passningar, xT 0.22SimkinJack Christopher Senior: 91 passningar, xT 0.33SeniorSeán Grehan: 89 passningar, xT 0.35GrehanOwen John Edward Bailey: 83 passningar, xT 0.24BaileyAlfie Ben May: 62 passningar, xT 0.28MayGeorge Broadbent: 62 passningar, xT 0.17BroadbentIsaac Hutchinson: 47 passningar, xT -0.02HutchinsonJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09Sterry
    Plymouth Argyle
    Harvey David White: 116 passningar, xT 0.32WhiteAlex Duncan Hartridge: 100 passningar, xT 0.43HartridgeWesley Nathan Hylton Harding: 97 passningar, xT 0.71HardingJulio Pleguezuelo: 75 passningar, xT 0.14PleguezueloMurphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper: 62 passningar, xT 0.21CooperAlexander Paul Mitchell: 57 passningar, xT 0.24MitchellRonan Curtis: 55 passningar, xT 0.73CurtisMathias Ross Jensen: 48 passningar, xT 0.18JensenTyreeq Jamal Adeshina Oliveira Bakinson: 45 passningar, xT 0.15BakinsonBradley Ryan Ibrahim: 36 passningar, xT 0.01IbrahimXavier Casmier Amaechi: 27 passningar, xT -0.01Amaechi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDoncaster RoversPlymouth Argyle
    Points34
    xPoints5.85.9
    xG per match0.911.2
    xGA per match0.851.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.050.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.44
    Playing styleDoncaster RoversPlymouth Argyle
    Build-up efficiency0.330.29
    Field tilt0.40.39
    xT per match0.710.96
    xTA per match0.940.94
    Won balls, offensive half2432
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.350.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.34
    Entries into the box per match108
    Entries into the box against1711
    Pass completion %0.660.6
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.64
    Passes per match282209
    Passes against per match301396
    Switches of play per match23.510.2
    Long balls per match3527
    Set piecesDoncaster RoversPlymouth Argyle
    xG from free kicks00.08
    Corners per match4.76.7
    Corners against per match6.74.7
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.220.19
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.53
    OtherDoncaster RoversPlymouth Argyle
    Throw-in control0.730.75
    The goalkeepersTommy James Simkin (Doncaster Rovers)Murphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper (Plymouth Argyle)
    Saves87
    Save %62%54%
    xG prevented59%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Doncaster Rovers
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Plymouth Argyle
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Doncaster Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle according to our model?

    The model gives Doncaster Rovers a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Doncaster Rovers 37%, draw 26%, Plymouth Argyle 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.