Crawley Town vs Barnet Prediction: Away win 57% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two26 September 2026 13:30 CESTBroadfield Stadium, Crawley16°11 km/h

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Crawley TownPossession control

BarnetCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Barnet (57%)

1 · Crawley Town 21%X 22%57% Barnet · 2

21%

22%

57%

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Analysis: Crawley Town – Barnet

Sofia Andersson · 24 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The odds figure "2.00 with Bet365" is not supported by the FACTS provided — no bookmaker odds are given. This is an unsupported claim and should be removed.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Barnet's remarkable 16-match unbeaten streak in the league is set against a backdrop of Crawley Town's struggles, having lost their last three games. This contrast tells a compelling story ahead of their League Two clash. The model heavily favors Barnet with a 57% win probability, a figure that casts a long shadow over Crawley's modest 21% chance. The most likely scorelines reflect this disparity, with Barnet's 1-2 victory narrowly trailing the 1-1 draw but still showing their edge.

Crawley's possession-focused approach has yet to yield results against Barnet's counter-attacking prowess, evidenced by their previous two head-to-head encounters since 2023. Although the sample size is small, Barnet's unbeaten record in these matchups adds weight to the visitors' credentials. The hosts' defensive frailties, as highlighted by their xGA of 1.7 per match, present an inviting target for a Barnet side that has found the net in 17 consecutive league fixtures.

The expected goals align with Barnet's ability to exploit Crawley's vulnerabilities, forecasting 1.82 goals for the visitors compared to the hosts' 1.15. This projection supports the model's lean towards a Barnet win, further underlined by their superior xPoints and xG figures. The potential for over 2.5 goals, pegged at 57%, suggests an open contest, albeit one where Barnet's attacking efficiency could shine through.

Given these dynamics, a 1-2 victory for Barnet emerges as the most plausible outcome. The inclination towards both teams scoring adds a layer of intrigue, and the over 2.5 goals market presents a viable angle for bettors. Those eyeing value might find it in backing a Barnet win, considering their formidable run and Crawley's defensive issues. The numbers paint a clear picture: Barnet to continue their unbeaten streak with a calculated, clinical display.

Crawley Town

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #21xT #11xP/match #19Points #24

Key players

Jude ArthursCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Charlie Mel BarkerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Barnet

Form DDDWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #10xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Charlie James LakinFxG 0.43 · xT 0.20
Kabongo TshimangaFxG 0.35 · xT -0.03
Oisín Jack GallagherFxG 0.10 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Crawley Town – Barnet

Predicted score matrix

Barnet →

Crawley Town →

0–05.5%

0–19.0%

0–28.5%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.5%

1–05.6%

1–111.1%

1–29.8%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.1%

2–03.4%

2–16.2%

2–25.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.3%

3–12.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,15–1,82

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Barnet to win57%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Barnet to win57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Oisín Jack Gallagher to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Oisín Jack Gallagher to score28%
Jude Arthurs to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Crawley Town	X	2 · Barnet
Pinnacle	4.02	4.29	1.67

Odds updated 22 Sept, 05:01

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Crawley Town 0Draw 1Barnet 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Crawley Town have lost 3 in a row.
Barnet are unbeaten in their last 16 league matches.
Barnet have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Crawley Town

Barnet

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Crawley Town (6–13)

Barnet (17–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

Barnet

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

Barnet

The teams in numbers

Performance	Crawley Town	Barnet
Points	4	12
xPoints	7.2	10.1
xG per match	1.4	1.7
xGA per match	1.7	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.56
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.27

Playing style	Crawley Town	Barnet
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.57	0.67
xT per match	0.92	0.96
xTA per match	1.1	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	23	39
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.48
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.52
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.56
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.56
Passes per match	349	211
Passes against per match	226	192
Switches of play per match	27.1	12.2
Long balls per match	30	22

Set pieces	Crawley Town	Barnet
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	4.1	7
Corners against per match	4.6	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.44

Other	Crawley Town	Barnet
Throw-in control	0.78	0.75

The goalkeepers	Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town)	Matthew Aidan Cox (Barnet)
Saves	16	16
Save %	64%	62%
xG prevented	52%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Crawley Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Barnet

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Crawley Town vs Barnet according to our model?

The model gives Barnet a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crawley Town 21%, draw 22%, Barnet 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.