EFL League TwoNew Meadow, Shrewsbury14°15 km/h

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    Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury TownLow block & direct
    vs
    Colchester UnitedColchester UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Colchester United (37%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+20 %)

    Shrewsbury Town vs Colchester United · EFL League Two

    1 · Shrewsbury Town 31%X 32%37% Colchester United · 2

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    Analysis: Shrewsbury Town – Colchester United

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    A mere 2-point gap separates Shrewsbury Town and Colchester United, yet the data favors the visitors. With a 37% probability, Colchester emerges as the most likely victor according to the model. While the head-to-head record is based on a limited sample of just two matches, Colchester's two victories underscore a psychological edge. Their counter-attacking prowess and reliance on crosses might exploit the Shrews' defensive vulnerabilities.

    Examining the expected goals, Colchester edges ahead with 1.18 compared to Shrewsbury's 1.07. The hosts, known for their low defensive line and direct play, may struggle to break down Colchester defensively, though Colchester's own xGA of 1.6 suggests their backline is actually more vulnerable than Shrewsbury's. The numbers suggest a tight contest, with the most likely outcomes being 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0. With a mere 39% chance of over 2.5 goals, this is projected to be a low-scoring affair, aligning with Shrewsbury's defensive-minded style.

    Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all present an attractive value on under 2.5 goals at odds 1.82, with an 11% edge on offer. This angle stands out as the sharpest play, given the tactical setups and historical trends. The defensive setup of Shrewsbury and recent performances point toward a cautious, low-scoring match.

    Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town
    Form WLLWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #7xP/match #8Points #19
    Key players
    • Kian McMahon-BrownLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.01
    • Sam StubbsCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    • Tom SangCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.23
    Colchester UnitedColchester United
    Form WLLDD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #20xT #3xP/match #16Points #12
    Key players
    • Kylian KouassiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
    • Jack PayneCAMxG 0.32 · xT 0.27
    • Harry AndersonLWxG 0.42 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Shrewsbury Town – Colchester United

    Predicted score matrix

    Colchester United →
    Shrewsbury Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.9%
    0–112.0%
    0–27.3%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–17.1%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.1-011%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,07–1,18
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,561%
    @1.82EV+11%
    Over 2,539%
    @2.00

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Colchester United or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Colchester United or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals61%
    • Jonathan Moses Momoh Sesay to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals39%
    • Jonathan Moses Momoh Sesay to score34%
    • Jay Williams to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 0.511% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 0.511% probability@11.00BetssonEV+20%reference odds
    • Under 0.511% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Shrewsbury TownX2 · Colchester United
    Betsafe2.42
    EV+ 3%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.80
    Betsson2.42
    EV+ 3%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.80
    Nordicbet2.42
    EV+ 3%
    3.20
    EV+ 3%
    2.80
    Pinnacle2.41
    EV+ 6%
    3.31
    EV+ 9%
    2.97

    Odds updated 25 Sept, 16:24

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    40 %35 %

    2.57 → 2.41

    X+2 %
    31 %26 %

    3.26 → 3.31

    2+9 %
    36 %31 %

    2.72 → 2.97

    Over 2,5+1 %
    50 %45 %

    1.99 → 2.00

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 25/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Shrewsbury Town 0Draw 0Colchester United 2
    Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Shrewsbury Town
    Colchester United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Shrewsbury Town (5–11)
    Colchester United (8–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Shrewsbury Town
    Tom Sang: 111 passningar, xT 0.8SangKevin Berkoe: 105 passningar, xT 0.6BerkoeWilliam Sam Douglas Harry Boyle: 102 passningar, xT 0.09BoyleLuca Anthony Hoole: 99 passningar, xT 0.42HooleSam Stubbs: 96 passningar, xT 0.17StubbsWill Gary: 81 passningar, xT 0.18GaryWilliam Michael Brook: 75 passningar, xT 0.16BrookJoshua Andrew Bernard Ruffels: 62 passningar, xT 0.1RuffelsJay Turner-Cooke: 48 passningar, xT 0.02Turner-CookeKian McMahon-Brown: 44 passningar, xT 0.02McMahon-BrownTom Anderson: 43 passningar, xT 0.2Anderson
    Colchester United
    Sean Aidan Raggett: 214 passningar, xT 0RaggettJack Tucker: 206 passningar, xT 0.37TuckerEllis Iandolo: 198 passningar, xT 0.48IandoloRob Hunt: 191 passningar, xT 0.34HuntJack Payne: 176 passningar, xT 0.4PayneThimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala: 129 passningar, xT 0.29Lo-TutalaJonathan Moses Momoh Sesay: 111 passningar, xT 0.49SesayJay Williams: 104 passningar, xT 0.02WilliamsOscar Thorn: 70 passningar, xT 0.3ThornHarry Anderson: 58 passningar, xT 0.19AndersonKane Vincent Young: 58 passningar, xT 0.22Young
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Shrewsbury Town
    Tom Sang: 111 passningar, xT 0.8SangKevin Berkoe: 105 passningar, xT 0.6BerkoeWilliam Sam Douglas Harry Boyle: 102 passningar, xT 0.09BoyleLuca Anthony Hoole: 99 passningar, xT 0.42HooleSam Stubbs: 96 passningar, xT 0.17StubbsWill Gary: 81 passningar, xT 0.18GaryWilliam Michael Brook: 75 passningar, xT 0.16BrookJoshua Andrew Bernard Ruffels: 62 passningar, xT 0.1RuffelsJay Turner-Cooke: 48 passningar, xT 0.02Turner-CookeKian McMahon-Brown: 44 passningar, xT 0.02McMahon-BrownTom Anderson: 43 passningar, xT 0.2Anderson
    Colchester United
    Sean Aidan Raggett: 214 passningar, xT 0RaggettJack Tucker: 206 passningar, xT 0.37TuckerEllis Iandolo: 198 passningar, xT 0.48IandoloRob Hunt: 191 passningar, xT 0.34HuntJack Payne: 176 passningar, xT 0.4PayneThimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala: 129 passningar, xT 0.29Lo-TutalaJonathan Moses Momoh Sesay: 111 passningar, xT 0.49SesayJay Williams: 104 passningar, xT 0.02WilliamsOscar Thorn: 70 passningar, xT 0.3ThornHarry Anderson: 58 passningar, xT 0.19AndersonKane Vincent Young: 58 passningar, xT 0.22Young

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceShrewsbury TownColchester United
    Points68
    xPoints9.17.4
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match0.931.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.29
    Playing styleShrewsbury TownColchester United
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.440.52
    xT per match0.981.2
    xTA per match0.730.96
    Won balls, offensive half3327
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.32
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.610.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.560.69
    Passes per match218338
    Passes against per match321272
    Switches of play per match15.125.9
    Long balls per match2738
    Set piecesShrewsbury TownColchester United
    xG from free kicks0.150.08
    Corners per match4.24.3
    Corners against per match44
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.19
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.83
    OtherShrewsbury TownColchester United
    Throw-in control0.750.72
    The goalkeepersWilliam Michael Brook (Shrewsbury Town)Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United)
    Saves1126
    Save %50%72%
    xG prevented29%56%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Shrewsbury Town
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Colchester United
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Shrewsbury Town vs Colchester United according to our model?

    The model gives Colchester United a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shrewsbury Town 31%, draw 32%, Colchester United 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.