Port Vale vs Northampton Town Prediction: Home win 56% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two26 September 2026 16:00 CESTVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent13°16 km/h

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Port ValePossession control

Northampton TownPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (56%)

1 · Port Vale 56%X 28%16% Northampton Town · 2

56%

28%

16%

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Analysis: Port Vale – Northampton Town

Erik Lindberg · 24 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A clash of defensive prowess looms as Port Vale host Northampton Town in League Two. Both sides favor possession control, making this a battle of attrition rather than an explosive showcase. With the match promising to be a tightly contested affair, Port Vale holds the upper hand with a 56% chance of victory. The most likely scorelines, a narrow 1-0 victory or a goalless draw, underscore the defensive focus expected from both teams.

Port Vale's expected goals of 1.34 and Northampton Town's 0.73 further illustrate the hosts' slight advantage. Despite trailing Northampton by one point in the standings, Vale's underlying numbers suggest they've been the better side overall. They boast an xPoints advantage of 8.0 to 7.1 and a higher xG per match at 0.98 compared to their visitors' 0.68. The defensive solidness is mirrored by their xGA, which at 1.1 is only marginally higher than Northampton's 1.0.

While the model leans towards Port Vale, the potential for a low-scoring outcome is high, as highlighted by the 34% probability for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score. The even possession control styles might lead to a cautious contest, where both teams focus on maintaining shape and minimizing risks. The tight odds of a 1-0 win for Vale or a 0-0 stalemate reflect this narrative.

The numbers suggest backing the hosts in a restrained, methodical encounter, where defensive discipline may well decide the outcome.

Port Vale

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #22xGA #5xT #12xP/match #22Points #23

Key players

Kyle Michael DempseyFxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Oliver David James LynchFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05

Northampton Town

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #24xGA #3xT #24xP/match #20Points #18

Key players

Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Port Vale – Northampton Town

Predicted score matrix

Northampton Town →

Port Vale →

0–013.0%

0–18.8%

0–23.3%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–016.6%

1–112.7%

1–24.5%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.4%

2–18.3%

2–23.0%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.1%

3–13.7%

3–21.3%

3–30.3%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.3%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-017%
2.0-013%
3.1-113%
4.2-011%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,34–0,73

Both teams to score

39%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

013%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,566%

–

Over 2,534%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Port Vale to win56%
Under 3.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Port Vale to win56%
Under 2.5 goals66%
Kyle Michael Dempsey to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score39%
Over 2.5 goals34%
Kyle Michael Dempsey to score25%
Elliott Jordan Moore to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Northampton Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (3–9)

Northampton Town (3–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Northampton Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Northampton Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Northampton Town
Points	5	6
xPoints	8	7.1
xG per match	0.98	0.68
xGA per match	1.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.22

Playing style	Port Vale	Northampton Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.54	0.4
xT per match	0.9	0.5
xTA per match	0.43	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	29	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.38	0.35
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.63	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.63
Passes per match	247	278
Passes against per match	243	309
Switches of play per match	19.4	15
Long balls per match	29	21

Set pieces	Port Vale	Northampton Town
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.02
Corners per match	4.7	5.2
Corners against per match	4.6	2.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.59

Other	Port Vale	Northampton Town
Throw-in control	0.74	0.74

The goalkeepers	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)	Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town)
Saves	10	17
Save %	59%	74%
xG prevented	36%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Northampton Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Northampton Town according to our model?

The model gives Port Vale a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 56%, draw 28%, Northampton Town 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 17% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 34% and under at 66%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 39% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.