Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale Prediction: Home win 53% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two26 September 2026 16:00 CESTHighbury Stadium, Fleetwood16°0,2 mm25 km/h

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Fleetwood TownLow block & direct

RochdalePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Fleetwood Town (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.67 (+4 %)

1 · Fleetwood Town 53%X 28%19% Rochdale · 2

53%

28%

19%

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Analysis: Fleetwood Town – Rochdale

Marcus Johansson · 24 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Fleetwood Town enters this meeting with a 53% chance of victory as per the model, which favors them over Rochdale's 19%. The hosts display a low defense and direct approach, a stark contrast to Rochdale's possession-focused style. This tactical clash might suppress goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the predicted 44% chance of both teams scoring. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 to Fleetwood, highlighting their edge.

The hosts possess a slight advantage in both standard points (10 vs 7) and expected points (7.2 vs 6.1). Their expected goals per match stand at 1.1, superior to Rochdale's 0.71, underscoring their offensive edge. Defensively, Fleetwood also leads, conceding fewer expected goals per match (1.4 compared to Rochdale's 1.6), which supports the model’s inclination toward a Fleetwood win and a low-scoring match.

For bettors, there's a notable value in the under 2.5 goals market. Odds of 1.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 4% edge, given the model rates this outcome at 56%. With a predicted low-scoring affair and Fleetwood’s tactical discipline, this line emerges as the sharpest angle for potential returns.

Fleetwood Town

Form DDWDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #17xT #6xP/match #18Points #7

Key players

Chedwyn Michael EvansFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Andrew Francis CannonRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Harrison NealCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04

Rochdale

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #23xGA #19xT #22xP/match #24Points #16

Key players

Daniel Thomas MossLBxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Luke James HannantRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.05
Ryan Henry EastCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Fleetwood Town – Rochdale

Predicted score matrix

Rochdale →

Fleetwood Town →

0–09.1%

0–16.6%

0–22.7%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.2%

1–111.7%

1–24.4%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–012.0%

2–19.3%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–06.6%

3–15.1%

3–22.0%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.9%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.2-012%
3.1-112%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,65–0,78

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.85EV+4%

Over 2,544%

@1.97

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fleetwood Town to win53%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fleetwood Town to win53%
Under 2.5 goals56%
William James Davies to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals44%
William James Davies to score24%
Daniel Thomas Moss to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.556% probability@1.85BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fleetwood Town	X	2 · Rochdale
Betsafe	1.88	3.40	3.95
Betsson	1.88	3.40	3.95
Nordicbet	1.88	3.40	3.95
Pinnacle	1.89	EV+ 4% 3.67	3.90

Odds updated 25 Sept, 14:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 20 September — the odds have shortened from 1.99 to 1.85 (−7%).

1+3 %

53 %48 %

1.84 → 1.89

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.79 → 3.67

2+2 %

27 %22 %

3.82 → 3.90

Over 2,5+9 %

53 %48 %

1.81 → 1.97

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 25/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fleetwood Town (8–7)

Rochdale (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fleetwood Town	Rochdale
Points	10	7
xPoints	7.2	6.1
xG per match	1.1	0.71
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.3

Playing style	Fleetwood Town	Rochdale
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.51	0.37
xT per match	0.99	0.62
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	16
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	7
Entries into the box against	11	15
Pass completion %	0.66	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.7
Passes per match	281	340
Passes against per match	281	310
Switches of play per match	18.6	20
Long balls per match	31	32

Set pieces	Fleetwood Town	Rochdale
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.01
Corners per match	4.8	3.6
Corners against per match	5.2	5.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.56

Other	Fleetwood Town	Rochdale
Throw-in control	0.67	0.75

The goalkeepers	Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town)	Nils Ramming (Rochdale)
Saves	15	21
Save %	68%	68%
xG prevented	35%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fleetwood Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Rochdale

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale according to our model?

The model gives Fleetwood Town a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fleetwood Town 53%, draw 28%, Rochdale 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.