York City vs Gillingham Prediction: Home win 69% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two26 September 2026 16:00 CESTLNER Community Stadium, York14°18 km/h

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York CityPossession control

GillinghamCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · York City (69%)

1 · York City 69%X 19%12% Gillingham · 2

69%

19%

12%

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Analysis: York City – Gillingham

Erik Lindberg · 24 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: With the model giving York City a hefty 69% win probability, this match points toward a dominant performance from the hosts. Despite Gillingham riding a three-game winning streak, their style of counterattacking and crossing may struggle against York's possession-oriented approach. The most likely scoreline, a 2-0 victory for York, reflects the expected control they should exert over the match.

In terms of expected goals, York's 2.38 against Gillingham's 0.79 underscores a significant offensive edge. With York generating an impressive 2.0 xG per match compared to Gillingham’s 1.1, the hosts have consistently posed more threat in attack. Even defensively, York has a slight edge with an xGA of 1.3 versus Gillingham’s 1.4, suggesting that York's backline could handle the visitors' attacks with relative ease.

While Gillingham’s recent form is commendable, the statistical realities of this season favor York. York’s combination of possession control and defensive solidity appears well-suited to contain Gillingham's counter-punching tactics. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 61%, but the expected control from the hosts suggests a disciplined performance rather than a free-scoring affair.

For bettors, there's tangible value in backing York at odds of 1.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where the model’s 69% rating yields a 3% edge. This calculated play aligns with the numbers and York's anticipated dominance on the pitch, offering a grounded opportunity to capitalize on the hosts' superiority in this fixture.

York City

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #11xT #1xP/match #12Points #4

Key players

Oliver Ian BanksCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.21
Harry BoyesLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.08

Gillingham

Form DDWWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #16xP/match #15Points #11

Key players

Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleFxG 0.25 · xT 0.01
James Robert BrophyFxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
William Neil GoodwinFxG 0.38 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: York City – Gillingham

Predicted score matrix

Gillingham →

York City →

0–04.5%

0–13.1%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.8%

1–18.1%

1–23.1%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.9%

2–19.4%

2–23.7%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.4%

3–17.4%

3–22.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–09.8%

4+–17.8%

4+–23.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-010%
3.3-09%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,38–0,79

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.32

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

York City to win69%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

York City to win69%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Olliver Robert Pearce to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Olliver Robert Pearce to score40%
Armani George Little to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · York City69% probability@1.56PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
1 · York City69% probability@1.52BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · York City69% probability@1.52BetssonEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · York City	X	2 · Gillingham
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 1.52	4.05	5.40
Betsson	EV+ 5% 1.52	4.05	5.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 1.52	4.05	5.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 7% 1.56	4.55	5.02

Odds updated 25 Sept, 16:24

Odds movement

1+4 %

64 %59 %

1.50 → 1.56

X-6 %

23 %18 %

4.85 → 4.55

2-1 %

21 %16 %

5.05 → 5.02

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 25/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Gillingham come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

York City

Gillingham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

York City (13–10)

Gillingham (11–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

York City

Gillingham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

York City

Gillingham

The teams in numbers

Performance	York City	Gillingham
Points	11	9
xPoints	8.3	8
xG per match	2	1.1
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.23

Playing style	York City	Gillingham
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.65	0.41
xT per match	1.4	0.81
xTA per match	0.74	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.31
Entries into the box per match	15	9
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.64
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.57
Passes per match	477	239
Passes against per match	229	332
Switches of play per match	29.1	16.4
Long balls per match	35	33

Set pieces	York City	Gillingham
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.09
Corners per match	7.1	4.2
Corners against per match	4.4	7
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.59

Other	York City	Gillingham
Throw-in control	0.81	0.68

The goalkeepers	Alfie Shane McNally (York City)	Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham)
Saves	19	16
Save %	66%	84%
xG prevented	51%	87%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

York City

Fixtures, form & tips

Gillingham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins York City vs Gillingham according to our model?

The model gives York City a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 69%, draw 19%, Gillingham 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.