Oldham Athletic vs Salford City Prediction: Home win 40% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two26 September 2026 18:30 CESTBoundary Park, Oldham13°17 km/h

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Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

Salford CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Oldham Athletic (40%)

1 · Oldham Athletic 40%X 28%32% Salford City · 2

40%

28%

32%

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Analysis: Oldham Athletic – Salford City

Oscar Nilsson · 24 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The FACTS do not include any betting odds (e.g., "2.50 with Bet365"), so this specific figure is an unsupported addition to the text.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Oldham Athletic might be nursing a three-game losing streak, but that's likely misleading the market. Their underlying numbers tell a different story. Despite those recent losses, Oldham's expected goals (xG) per match stands at 1.4, notably higher than Salford City's 1.1. The hosts also have a superior xG within eight seconds of winning the ball, underscoring their capacity for rapid, incisive play. This could prove pivotal against a Salford side that thrives on possession but often struggles to turn it into tangible threats.

Salford's possession-based style might control the tempo, yet it rarely translates into overwhelming attacking pressure. Their expected goals against (xGA) per match sits at 1.4, indicating vulnerability at the back, which Oldham is well-equipped to exploit. The hosts' xGA of 1.2 suggests a slight edge defensively, too. With both teams to score clocking in at 57%, the numbers hint at each side finding the net, but the tilt is towards Oldham capitalizing on their high-octane approach.

The head-to-head record, with Oldham losing both encounters since 2023, offers a limited and potentially deceptive sample. It pales in comparison to the current analytical metrics. The model assigns Oldham a 40% chance of victory, a lean that aligns with their superior xPoints tally of 10.5 against Salford's 5.8. The most probable outcomes, featuring a 1-1 draw at 12% and a 2-1 win for the hosts at 9%, indicate a slight nod towards Oldham, albeit in a tight contest.

Bookmakers may overlook the subtle strengths of Oldham's direct style. Their edge in expected goals and rapid transition play, combined with their higher likelihood of converting chances, suggests value in backing the hosts. Keep an eye on this as the sharp angle, as Oldham is positioned to break their losing run.

Oldham Athletic

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #15xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Elliott Lloyd NevittFxG 0.10 · xT 0.01
Calum KavanaghCAMxG 0.77 · xT 0.05

Salford City

Form LWWDW

League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #17xP/match #23Points #15

Key players

Adebola OluwoCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
Joe James PowellCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
Ryan GraydonLWxG 0.19 · xT -0.03

Match prediction: Oldham Athletic – Salford City

Predicted score matrix

Salford City →

Oldham Athletic →

0–06.3%

0–17.1%

0–24.6%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.1%

1–112.0%

1–27.3%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.2%

2–25.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.9%

3–14.8%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,57–1,24

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.05

Over 2,553%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Calum Graham Kavanagh to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Macaulay Langstaff to score23%
Elliot Michael Bonds to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Oldham Athletic	X	2 · Salford City
Betsafe	2.45	3.40	2.65
Betsson	2.45	3.40	2.65
Nordicbet	2.45	3.40	2.65
Pinnacle	2.43	3.44	2.77

Odds updated 25 Sept, 16:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 20 September — the odds have shortened from 2.24 to 2.05 (−8%).

1+1 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.43

X-4 %

29 %24 %

3.59 → 3.44

2+2 %

37 %32 %

2.71 → 2.77

Over 2,5+8 %

58 %53 %

1.63 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 25/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Oldham Athletic 0Draw 0Salford City 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Oldham Athletic have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oldham Athletic

Salford City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oldham Athletic (8–9)

Salford City (8–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Salford City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oldham Athletic

Salford City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oldham Athletic	Salford City
Points	7	7
xPoints	10.5	5.8
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.44

Playing style	Oldham Athletic	Salford City
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.37
Field tilt	0.5	0.58
xT per match	0.84	0.78
xTA per match	0.98	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	31	23
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.42
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.45
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.65	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.66
Passes per match	254	357
Passes against per match	327	196
Switches of play per match	18.1	22.4
Long balls per match	38	31

Set pieces	Oldham Athletic	Salford City
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.11
Corners per match	5.5	5.3
Corners against per match	4.5	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.64

Other	Oldham Athletic	Salford City
Throw-in control	0.75	0.81

The goalkeepers	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)	William James Norris (Salford City)
Saves	14	20
Save %	64%	69%
xG prevented	55%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oldham Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Salford City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oldham Athletic vs Salford City according to our model?

The model gives Oldham Athletic a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oldham Athletic 40%, draw 28%, Salford City 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.