Port Vale vs Rochdale Prediction: Home win 52% (31 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two31 October 2026 13:30 CETVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent9°14 km/h

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Port ValePossession control

RochdalePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (52%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+15 %)

1 · Port Vale 52%X 29%19% Rochdale · 2

52%

29%

19%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Port Vale vs Rochdale (EFL League Two, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Port Vale win 52%, draw 29%, Rochdale win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Port Vale 1.51, Rochdale 0.78. Most likely score: 1-0 (15%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%. Double chance: Port Vale or draw 81%, Rochdale or draw 48%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Port Vale – Rochdale

Anna Karlsson · 26 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

1-0 sits at the heart of this game, and the decisive question is whether Port Vale can turn territorial control into a second goal before Rochdale find a route back. Both sides profile as possession-control teams, but the hosts have the clearer defensive platform: 1.1 xGA per match against the visitors’ 1.6. That gap matters more than the shared inclination to keep the ball. It points to Vale setting the tempo and Rochdale struggling to turn possession into danger.

The league table gives Rochdale 15 points to Vale’s 12, yet the underlying picture pulls the other way. Vale hold a 13.7 to 12.2 edge in xPoints, have produced 1.1 xG per match against 0.91, and concede substantially less. Those figures suggest the hosts have been the more sustainable side despite the current points deficit. Rochdale’s higher tally is real, but it does not erase the quality of chances both teams have created and allowed.

The model gives Port Vale a 52% win probability, with the draw at 29% and Rochdale at 19%. That makes the home side the clear lean, though not one likely to run away with it. Vale’s 1.51 expected goals sit alongside Rochdale’s 0.78, a combination that makes 1-0 the most likely scoreline at 15%. The next two leading outcomes, 1-1 and 2-0, both sit at 12%. Under 2.5 goals is the stronger direction, with over 2.5 rated at only 40% and both teams to score at 43%.

The sharper prices sit even lower. Under 0.5 goals at 11.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet is assessed as EV+, with the model rating it 10% and identifying a 15% edge; it is a long-shot position rather than a prediction. Under 1.5 at 3.35 with Betsafe also grades EV+, rated 33% by the model for a 10% edge. For the main match call, though: Port Vale 1-0, under 2.5 goals.

Port Vale

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #22xGA #4xT #12xP/match #20Points #23

Key players

Kyle Michael DempseyFxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
Jasper MoonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
George William ByersCDMxG 0.35 · xT 0.07

Rochdale

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #24xGA #22xT #17xP/match #24Points #17

Key players

Sam SherringCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
Glenn Bell Dollar MiddletonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
Daniel Thomas MossLBxG 0.14 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Port Vale – Rochdale

Predicted score matrix

Rochdale →

Port Vale →

0–010.5%

0–17.6%

0–23.1%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.9%

1–112.3%

1–24.7%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.5%

2–19.0%

2–23.5%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.8%

3–14.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.1%

4+–12.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-015%
2.1-112%
3.2-012%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,51–0,78

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.82EV+9%

Over 2,540%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Port Vale to win52%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Port Vale to win52%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Oliver David James Lynch to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Oliver David James Lynch to score22%
Harvey James Gilmour to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.510% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Port Vale	X	2 · Rochdale
Betsafe	1.75	EV+ 5% 3.60	4.25
LeoVegas	1.70	EV+ 5% 3.60	4.50
Nordicbet	1.75	EV+ 5% 3.60	4.25

Odds updated 26 Oct, 14:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.70

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+10 %

24 %19 %

4.10 → 4.50

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.90 → 1.91

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Rochdale

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (6–12)

Rochdale (15–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Rochdale

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Rochdale

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Rochdale
Points	12	15
xPoints	13.7	12.2
xG per match	1.1	0.91
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.3

Playing style	Port Vale	Rochdale
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.51	0.42
xT per match	0.88	0.75
xTA per match	0.49	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	28	18
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.65	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.7
Passes per match	266	358
Passes against per match	274	297
Switches of play per match	20	21
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Port Vale	Rochdale
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	4.8	4.7
Corners against per match	5.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.57

Other	Port Vale	Rochdale
Throw-in control	0.76	0.75

The goalkeepers	Marko Maroši (Port Vale)	Nils Ramming (Rochdale)
Saves	13	26
Save %	72%	70%
xG prevented	59%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Rochdale

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Rochdale according to our model?

The model gives Port Vale a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 52%, draw 29%, Rochdale 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Port Vale vs Rochdale?

The model expects 1.51 goals (xG) for Port Vale and 0.78 for Rochdale, 2.29 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Port Vale or draw (1X) 81%, Rochdale or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.