01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tranmere Rovers to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoPrenton Park, Birkenhead10°13 km/h
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Tranmere RoversCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Cheltenham TownLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Tranmere Rovers (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.05 (+7 %)
Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town · EFL League Two
1 · Tranmere Rovers 45%X 28%27% Cheltenham Town · 2
45%
28%
27%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Tranmere Rovers win 45%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Tranmere Rovers 1.55, Cheltenham Town 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Tranmere Rovers or draw 73%, Cheltenham Town or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tranmere Rovers – Cheltenham Town
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Tranmere Rovers’ crossing and counter-attacking unit is the pressure point. Cheltenham Town defend low and play direct, a profile that can invite the hosts onto the flanks but also reduce the space for clean chances in central areas. The model gives Tranmere a 45% win probability against 27% for the visitors, with the draw at 28%. That points to the hosts, though the most likely individual scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 at 11% and 2-1 at 9%.
The tactical tension is clear: Tranmere want transitions and deliveries; Cheltenham want to stay compact, absorb pressure and go forward quickly. The hosts carry the better attacking process at 1.2 xG per match versus 1.1, while their match projection is 1.55 expected goals to Cheltenham’s 1.05. Yet this is not a case for assuming sustained home control. Both teams concede 1.6 xGA per match, although Cheltenham hold the stated edge there, and the visitors have the stronger points total, 21 to 16, plus a 17.4 to 16.5 edge in xPoints.
That split matters. Cheltenham’s season return has been better than Tranmere’s, but the matchup model still prefers the hosts because their route to chances fits the visitors’ low defensive block: win territory, attack wide, and turn second balls into crossing situations. Cheltenham’s direct game can keep the contest uncomfortable, particularly if Tranmere’s full-backs push high. Both teams to score is rated at 51%, so a narrow game with one reply remains very live.
The head-to-head since 2023 reads 4 matches, with Tranmere 3W 0D 1L. It is a small sample and weighs less than current form and expected goals, but it supports the idea that this fixture has suited the hosts more than the broader points picture suggests. My call is a Tranmere lean, with 1-1 the most likely scoreline and under 2.5 goals the stronger totals stance. LeoVegas’ under 2.5 at 2.1 is assessed as EV+ at 52%, a 9% edge; under 1.5 at 4.1 is also rated 26% with a 9% edge, while under 3.5 at 1.44 carries a 74% model rating and 6% edge.
Tranmere RoversForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #21xT #18xP/match #18Points #14
Key players
- William Robert VaulksCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Thomas Christopher InceRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
- Zane OkoroRWxG 0.23 · xT -0.03
Cheltenham TownForm LLLWW
League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #24xP/match #15Points #3
Key players
- Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
- James Steven WilsonCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
- Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Tranmere Rovers – Cheltenham Town
Predicted score matrix
Cheltenham Town →
Tranmere Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–17.5%
0–24.1%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.2%
1–112.5%
1–26.3%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.4%
2–24.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.6%
3–14.8%
3–22.5%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,55–1,05
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.05EV+3%
Over 2,548%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tranmere Rovers to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Joe Samuel Ironside to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Joe Samuel Ironside to score29%
- Ben Edward Stevenson to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.552% probability@2.05LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- Under 2.552% probability@2.02PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 2 · Cheltenham Town27% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tranmere Rovers | X | 2 · Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | EV+ 5% 3.95 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | EV+ 5% 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | EV+ 5% 3.71 | EV+ 3% 3.87 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesTranmere Rovers 3Draw 0Cheltenham Town 1
Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tranmere Rovers
Cheltenham Town
Tranmere Rovers (16–16)
Cheltenham Town (22–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tranmere Rovers
Cheltenham Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tranmere Rovers
Cheltenham Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 21 |
| xPoints | 16.5 | 17.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 252 | 273 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 338 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.2 | 17.7 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| Other | Tranmere Rovers | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Luke Paul McGee (Tranmere Rovers) | Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 34 |
| Save % | 75% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town according to our model?
The model gives Tranmere Rovers a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tranmere Rovers 45%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town?
The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for Tranmere Rovers and 1.05 for Cheltenham Town, 2.59 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tranmere Rovers or draw (1X) 73%, Cheltenham Town or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.