Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham Prediction: Home win 45% (31 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two31 October 2026 16:00 CETNew Meadow, Shrewsbury8°8 km/h

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Shrewsbury TownLow block & direct

GillinghamLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Shrewsbury Town (45%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.20 (+7 %)

1 · Shrewsbury Town 45%X 31%24% Gillingham · 2

45%

31%

24%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham (EFL League Two, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Shrewsbury Town win 45%, draw 31%, Gillingham win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Shrewsbury Town 1.35, Gillingham 0.92. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Shrewsbury Town or draw 76%, Gillingham or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham

Erik Lindberg · 26 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

0.92 expected goals for Gillingham is the starting point. Shrewsbury Town are rated 45% to win, against 31% for the draw and 24% for the visitors. The analysis points plainly to the hosts, with 1-0 the most likely scoreline at 14%. Over 2.5 goals sits at just 39%, so the lean is under.

Both sides are low-defence, direct profiles, but Shrewsbury’s season numbers carry the stronger case: 22.0 xPoints to 17.3, 1.5 xG per match to 1.1, and 0.94 xGA to 1.4. Their 18 points also edge Gillingham’s 17. The head-to-head since 2023 is 0W 1D 1L from 2 matches; that sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals.

The sharper angle is under 1.5 goals: LeoVegas offers 3.2, assessed as EV+ with the model rating it 34% for a 7% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet are 3.15, each assessed at a 6% edge. Dull football, a 1-0 home win, and under 1.5 at LeoVegas.

Shrewsbury Town

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #7xP/match #2Points #10

Key players

Sam StubbsCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Tom SangRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Kian McMahon-BrownLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.07

Gillingham

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #19xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Omar Jerome BecklesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
Garath James McClearyRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleLWxG 0.30 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham

Predicted score matrix

Gillingham →

Shrewsbury Town →

0–010.8%

0–19.2%

0–24.4%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.6%

1–113.2%

1–25.9%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.4%

2–18.6%

2–24.0%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–04.2%

3–13.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.9%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.2-09%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,35–0,92

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.73EV+4%

Over 2,539%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Shrewsbury Town or draw (1X)75%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Shrewsbury Town or draw (1X)75%
Under 2.5 goals61%
Joshua Michael Blainey Davison to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Joshua Michael Blainey Davison to score26%
Andrew John Smith to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.534% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
Under 1.534% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 1.534% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Shrewsbury Town	X	2 · Gillingham
Betsafe	1.98	EV+ 4% 3.30	3.70
LeoVegas	1.98	EV+ 2% 3.25	3.55
Nordicbet	1.98	EV+ 4% 3.30	3.70

Odds updated 26 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Gillingham win since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 3.95 to 3.55 (−10%).

1+5 %

50 %45 %

1.88 → 1.98

X-2 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.25

2-10 %

27 %22 %

3.95 → 3.55

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

1.98 → 1.98

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Shrewsbury Town 0Draw 1Gillingham 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shrewsbury Town

Gillingham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shrewsbury Town (16–20)

Gillingham (18–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Gillingham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shrewsbury Town

Gillingham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shrewsbury Town	Gillingham
Points	18	17
xPoints	22	17.3
xG per match	1.5	1.1
xGA per match	0.94	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.26

Playing style	Shrewsbury Town	Gillingham
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.4
xT per match	1	0.68
xTA per match	0.9	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	30	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.6	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.59
Passes per match	207	244
Passes against per match	294	307
Switches of play per match	15.7	17.7
Long balls per match	30	30

Set pieces	Shrewsbury Town	Gillingham
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.06
Corners per match	5.4	3.6
Corners against per match	4.2	5.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.6

Other	Shrewsbury Town	Gillingham
Throw-in control	0.76	0.74

The goalkeepers	William Michael Brook (Shrewsbury Town)	Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham)
Saves	23	38
Save %	54%	76%
xG prevented	39%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Shrewsbury Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Gillingham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham according to our model?

The model gives Shrewsbury Town a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shrewsbury Town 45%, draw 31%, Gillingham 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham?

The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Shrewsbury Town and 0.92 for Gillingham, 2.26 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Shrewsbury Town or draw (1X) 76%, Gillingham or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.