Besiktas JK vs Marseille: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Europa League17 September 202620°17 km/h

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Besiktas JKPossession & high press

4–1

Marseille

The model's lean: 1 · Besiktas JK (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Marseille @ 4.30 (+19 %)

1 · Besiktas JK 46%X 26%28% Marseille · 2

46%

26%

28%

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Analysis: Besiktas JK – Marseille

Sofia Andersson · 15 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, a figure that captures their slight edge in this matchup against Olympique Marseille. Despite this, the hosts' expected goals (xG) stand at 1.60 compared to the visitors' 1.30, indicating a close contest. Yet, the numbers favor Beşiktaş, particularly given their home advantage.

The most likely scoreline, 1-1, occurs 12% of the time, followed by a 2-1 victory for Beşiktaş at 9%. With a 55% probability for over 2.5 goals, the model suggests a lean towards a match that could see multiple scores, although it's not overwhelming. The both-teams-to-score probability at 58% further supports the potential for a lively contest, but the model's overall lean stays conservative, with a nod towards Beşiktaş emerging narrowly ahead.

However, the real intrigue lies in the value odds for Marseille. Despite their 28% win probability, Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.3, providing a 19% edge. For those hunting value, backing the visitors might be the sharpest play, even if the numbers give the hosts a slight pre-match favor.

Besiktas JK

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #5xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Orkun KökçüCAMxG 0.63 · xT 0.21
Hyun-Gyu OhFxG 0.52 · xT -0.01
Emirhan TopcuCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.18

Marseille

Form LLWDL

Key players

VitinhaFxG 0.45 · xT 0.14
Chancel Mbemba ManguluCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Leonardo BalerdiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Numbers from Ligue 1 2023

Final score

4 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Besiktas JK 46% · Draw 26% · Marseille 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MarseilleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,98fair 11,20-11 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,40fair 7,43-41 %

Hit

Match prediction: Besiktas JK – Marseille

Predicted score matrix

Marseille →

Besiktas JK →

0–05.8%

0–16.8%

0–24.7%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.5%

1–111.8%

1–27.4%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–19.2%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.8%

3–14.9%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.1%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,60–1,30

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.48EV+10%

Over 2,555%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Besiktas JK to win46%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Besiktas JK to win46%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score41%
Jordan Veretout to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Marseille28% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
2 · Marseille28% probability@4.30BetssonEV+19%reference odds
2 · Marseille28% probability@4.30NordicbetEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Besiktas JK	X	2 · Marseille
Betsafe	1.78	EV+ 1% 3.90	EV+ 19% 4.30
Betsson	1.78	EV+ 1% 3.90	EV+ 19% 4.30
Nordicbet	1.78	EV+ 1% 3.90	EV+ 19% 4.30
Pinnacle	1.79	EV+ 7% 4.13	EV+ 17% 4.21

Odds updated 17 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Besiktas JK win since 9 September — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.79 (−13%).

1-13 %

55 %45 %

2.05 → 1.79

X+5 %

28 %18 %

3.93 → 4.13

2+32 %

31 %21 %

3.18 → 4.21

Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Besiktas JK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Besiktas JK (8–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Besiktas JK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Besiktas JK

The goalkeepers	Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK)	Marseille
Saves	16	–
Save %	94%	–
xG prevented	94%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Besiktas JK

Fixtures, form & tips

Marseille

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Besiktas JK vs Marseille according to our model?

The model gives Besiktas JK a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Besiktas JK 46%, draw 26%, Marseille 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.