Celtic vs Ferencváros: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Europa League17 September 202612°7,7 mm28 km/h

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Celtic

1–3

FerencvárosLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Celtic (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ferencváros @ 4.85 (+33 %)

1 · Celtic 50%X 23%27% Ferencváros · 2

50%

23%

27%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Celtic – Ferencváros

Anna Karlsson · 15 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Celtic's chances hinge on their ability to neutralize Ferencváros' attacking streak. The visitors have an impressive run, scoring in eight consecutive league matches and remaining unbeaten in their last eight. This kind of form, although in domestic competition, suggests a team riding high on confidence and capable of finding the net even against organized defenses.

The statistical model leans towards a Celtic victory with a 50% probability, but the expected goals tell a closer story: 1.67 for the hosts versus 1.32 for the visitors. It suggests a tightly contested match, with the most likely scorelines all within a one-goal margin. The 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome at 11%, followed by a narrow 2-1 win for Celtic at 9%. The presence of rain, factored into the model, might suppress the goal total slightly, yet over 2.5 goals still holds a 58% likelihood.

While Celtic holds the statistical upper hand, the eye-catching odds for Ferencváros present a compelling betting angle. Available at 4.5 on platforms like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model suggests a 27% chance for an away win, translating into a 23% edge over the bookmakers. This value bet stands out, especially considering the visitors' recent scoring form and unbeaten streak.

With both teams likely to find the back of the net — given the 60% chance of both teams scoring — a bet on Ferencváros at these odds could be worth the risk. The value lies in their capacity to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Celtic, potentially snatching a result that defies the expected script.

Celtic

Form LDWLW

Key players

Benjamin NygrenRWxG 0.59 · xT 0.17
Reo HatateCAMxG 0.34 · xT 0.17
Liam ScalesCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Ferencváros

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #10xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

Lenny JosephFxG 0.80 · xT 0.09
Kristoffer ZachariassenRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.12
Naby KeitaCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Final score

1 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Celtic 50% · Draw 23% · Ferencváros 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FerencvarosiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,86fair 10,83+0 %

Hit

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,11fair 6,80-40 %

Miss

Match prediction: Celtic – Ferencváros

Predicted score matrix

Ferencváros →

Celtic →

0–05.3%

0–16.3%

0–24.4%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.0%

1–111.4%

1–27.3%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–19.3%

2–26.1%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.9%

3–15.2%

3–23.4%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.4%

4+–13.1%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,67–1,32

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

@2.50EV+6%

Over 2,558%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win50%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Erik Benjamin Nygren to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Erik Benjamin Nygren to score28%
Ádám Nagy to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ferencváros27% probability@4.85PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
2 · Ferencváros27% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
2 · Ferencváros27% probability@4.70BetssonEV+29%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celtic	X	2 · Ferencváros
Betsafe	1.72	3.90	EV+ 29% 4.70
Betsson	1.72	3.90	EV+ 29% 4.70
Nordicbet	1.72	3.90	EV+ 29% 4.70
Pinnacle	1.68	4.16	EV+ 33% 4.85

Odds updated 17 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

58 %53 %

1.69 → 1.68

X+1 %

26 %21 %

4.10 → 4.16

2+8 %

24 %19 %

4.50 → 4.85

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Ferencvarosi TC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celtic

Ferencváros

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ferencváros (16–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

The goalkeepers	Celtic	Denes Dibusz (Ferencváros)
Saves	–	22
Save %	–	85%
xG prevented	–	52%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Ferencváros

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celtic vs Ferencváros according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 50%, draw 23%, Ferencváros 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.