OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim: Prediction & Odds (17 Sept 2026)

Europa League17 September 202613°4,7 mm26 km/h

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OFI CreteCounter-attacks & crosses

2–0

Hoffenheim

The model's lean: 2 · Hoffenheim (60%)Best value by the model: 1 · OFI Crete @ 9.70 (+97 %)

1 · OFI Crete 20%X 20%60% Hoffenheim · 2

20%

60%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: OFI Crete – Hoffenheim

Anna Karlsson · 15 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Hoffenheim's potent attack sets the stage for a compelling clash against OFI Crete. The German side's offensive prowess is reflected in the model's probabilities: Hoffenheim holds a commanding 60% chance of victory. This attacking strength contrasts sharply with the hosts' more modest expected goals of 1.21, creating a clear imbalance in firepower.

Crete, however, isn't entirely without hope. Despite the odds heavily favoring the visitors, the allure of a home win sparkles in the betting market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 7.9, there's a striking 61% value edge for those willing to back the underdog. In the unpredictable world of football, such value cannot be ignored.

There's a solid expectation that Hoffenheim will find the net more than once. The 1-2 and 0-2 scorelines each hold significant probabilities but the slight edge leans towards both teams getting on the scoresheet. With a 61% chance for both teams to score and a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals, the metrics suggest a lively encounter.

Ultimately, while the numbers point towards a Hoffenheim victory, the real betting intrigue lies with the potential for an upset. The odds of 7.9 for a Crete win present a tantalizing opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the bookmakers' generosity. Balancing risk and reward here could lead to a profitable insight, especially given the model's firm belief in Hoffenheim's superiority.

OFI Crete

Form W

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #16xP/match #4Points #13

Key players

Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Kenan KodroFxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
Christos SielisCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
Numbers from Greece Super League 2026

Hoffenheim

Form DLDLW

Key players

Adam HložekFxG 0.57 · xT 0.06
Tim LemperleLWxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
Vladimír CoufalRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
Numbers from Bundesliga 2026

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: OFI Crete 20% · Draw 20% · Hoffenheim 60%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - OFI KretaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 25,13fair 13,92+80 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,44fair 4,77-28 %

Miss

Match prediction: OFI Crete – Hoffenheim

Predicted score matrix

Hoffenheim →

OFI Crete →

0–04.1%

0–17.6%

0–28.1%

0–35.5%

0–4+4.6%

1–04.3%

1–19.8%

1–29.8%

1–36.7%

1–4+5.5%

2–02.8%

2–15.7%

2–25.9%

2–34.0%

2–4+3.3%

3–01.1%

3–12.3%

3–22.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,21–2,06

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.69

Over 2,563%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hoffenheim to win60%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hoffenheim to win60%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Wouter Burger to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Thiago Thomas Nuss to score20%
Ilija Vukotić to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · OFI Crete20% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+97%reference odds
1 · OFI Crete20% probability@9.70BetssonEV+97%reference odds
1 · OFI Crete20% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+97%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · OFI Crete	X	2 · Hoffenheim
Betsafe	EV+ 97% 9.70	EV+ 5% 5.25	1.32
Betsson	EV+ 97% 9.70	EV+ 5% 5.25	1.32
Nordicbet	EV+ 97% 9.70	EV+ 5% 5.25	1.32
Pinnacle	EV+ 82% 8.94	EV+ 9% 5.46	1.34

Odds updated 17 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Hoffenheim win since 9 September — the odds have shortened from 1.40 to 1.34 (−4%).

1+25 %

15 %10 %

7.18 → 8.94

X+13 %

21 %16 %

4.85 → 5.46

2-4 %

72 %67 %

1.40 → 1.34

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

OFI Crete (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

OFI Crete

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

OFI Crete

The goalkeepers	Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)	Hoffenheim
Saves	6	–
Save %	100%	–
xG prevented	100%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

OFI Crete

Fixtures, form & tips

Hoffenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim according to our model?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFI Crete 20%, draw 20%, Hoffenheim 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.