01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Europa League10°5 km/h
Läs på svenska
HoffenheimPossession & high press2–3
Besiktas JKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Hoffenheim (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Besiktas JK @ 3.50 (+26 %)
Hoffenheim vs Besiktas JK · Europa League
1 · Hoffenheim 40%X 24%36% Besiktas JK · 2
40%
24%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hoffenheim vs Besiktas JK (Europa League, Thursday, 15 October 2026): Hoffenheim win 40%, draw 24%, Besiktas JK win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Hoffenheim 1.56, Besiktas JK 1.38. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Hoffenheim or draw 64%, Besiktas JK or draw 60%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 7 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hoffenheim – Besiktas JK
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Despite the host's winless run, the betting model surprisingly leans slightly towards Hoffenheim, giving them a 40% chance of victory against Beşiktaş's 36%. This clash promises to be a tightly contested affair, given both teams share a similar tactical approach, emphasizing possession and high pressing. These strategies inherently create an intriguing battle for midfield dominance and could lead to high turnover rates, potentially setting the stage for counter-attacking opportunities.
While Hoffenheim has yet to accumulate any points in this season's Europa League campaign, Beşiktaş has been a formidable force, amassing 18 points. The Turkish side's superior xPoints of 13.6 to Hoffenheim's meager 1.2 further highlight the visitors as the stronger outfit. Despite this, the model suggests the most likely outcomes are quite balanced, with 1-1 being the top predicted scoreline at 12%.
Both teams exhibit impressive expected goals per match figures—Hoffenheim with 2.0 and Beşiktaş slightly ahead at 2.3. However, with expected goals against of 0.86 and 0.73, respectively, their defensive records suggest a closely fought encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 56%, hinting at a potential for goals despite the tactical focus on defense and pressing.
From a betting perspective, the standout value lies with Beşiktaş. With odds of 3.6 available at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, the model sees a 30% edge for an away win, indicating a lucrative opportunity for punters seeking value. Additionally, for those considering a long shot, the under 0.5 goals at odds of 23.0 with Betsafe provides a tantalizing, albeit unlikely, option with a 29% edge.
In essence, while the match appears evenly poised on paper, the value clearly sides with Beşiktaş. Expect a closely contested duel with potential for either team to snatch a narrow victory.
HoffenheimForm LDLWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #1xP/match #29Points #49
Key players
- Ozan KabakCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Bambasé ContéRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
- Adam HložekFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
- Numbers from Bundesliga 2026
Besiktas JKForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #7xP/match #8Points #2
Key players
- Emirhan TopcuCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
- Orkun KökçüCAMxG 0.59 · xT 0.15
- Tiago Emanuel Embaló DjalóCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hoffenheim 40% · Draw 24% · Besiktas JK 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,59fair 9,81-23 %
HitMatchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,50fair 7,74-42 %
MissMatch prediction: Hoffenheim – Besiktas JK
Predicted score matrix
Besiktas JK →
Hoffenheim →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–17.0%
0–25.0%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.9%
1–111.7%
1–27.9%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–18.9%
2–26.1%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.6%
3–23.2%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,56–1,38
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@2.65EV+15%
Over 2,556%
@1.48
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Adam Hložek to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Adam Hložek to score30%
- Leon Avdullahu to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Besiktas JK36% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Besiktas JK36% probability@3.50NordicbetEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Besiktas JK36% probability@3.49PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hoffenheim | X | 2 · Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.90 | EV+ 26% 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.92 | 3.90 | EV+ 21% 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.90 | EV+ 26% 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.98 | EV+ 26% 3.49 |
Odds updated 15 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
51 %46 %
1.93 → 1.99
X-2 %
26 %21 %
4.06 → 3.98
2+1 %
30 %25 %
3.44 → 3.49
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Besiktas JK
Hoffenheim (0–2)
Besiktas JK (12–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim
Besiktas JK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hoffenheim
Besiktas JK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hoffenheim | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 18 |
| xPoints | 1.2 | 13.6 |
| xG per match | 2 | 2.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.86 | 0.73 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Hoffenheim | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.92 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 49 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 31 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 472 | 535 |
| Passes against per match | 175 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 41.9 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Hoffenheim | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.58 |
| Other | Hoffenheim | Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim) | Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 18 |
| Save % | 33% | 90% |
| xG prevented | 14% | 88% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň15 October 2026
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- Benfica – Celtic15 October 2026
- Marseille – Olympiacos15 October 2026
- Celje – Omonia Nicosia15 October 2026
- NEC – Levski Sofia15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm15 October 2026
- Rennes – OFI Crete15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise – Real Sociedad15 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hoffenheim vs Besiktas JK according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim 40%, draw 24%, Besiktas JK 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hoffenheim vs Besiktas JK?
The model expects 1.56 goals (xG) for Hoffenheim and 1.38 for Besiktas JK, 2.94 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hoffenheim or draw (1X) 64%, Besiktas JK or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.