01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Auxerre or draw (X2)62%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Ligue 1Stade Océane, Le Havre12°14,8 mm16 km/h
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Le HavreBalanced & physical1–3
AuxerreBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Auxerre (37%)
Le Havre vs Auxerre · Ligue 1
1 · Le Havre 36%X 27%37% Auxerre · 2
36%
27%
37%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Le Havre vs Auxerre (Ligue 1, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Le Havre win 36%, draw 27%, Auxerre win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Le Havre 1.37, Auxerre 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Le Havre or draw 63%, Auxerre or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Le Havre – Auxerre
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: As Le Havre hosts Auxerre, the razor-thin balance between the teams sets the stage for a tight contest. With model probabilities giving Auxerre a slight edge at 37% to Le Havre's 36%, the visitors appear marginally favored, despite the host's historical dominance in their recent head-to-head meetings. Auxerre's ability to consistently find the back of the net in their last 11 league outings suggests they could break through the typically robust defense of Le Havre, which has proven resilient in their past clashes.
The midfield battle promises to be intense, as both teams are known for their balanced and physical style of play. With expected goals (xG) almost neck-and-neck at 1.37 for the hosts and 1.30 for the visitors, the match could easily swing in either direction. Le Havre's capacity to generate higher xG per match compared to their counterparts indicates they might create more clear-cut chances. However, Auxerre's knack for scoring consistently cannot be overlooked, hinting at an evenly poised contest.
Despite Le Havre's superior head-to-head record of three wins and a draw in their last four encounters—a small sample that holds less weight than current form—Auxerre's recent points and xPoints advantage this season underscores their competitiveness. The expected goals against (xGA) further complicate the picture, showing both teams have vulnerabilities at the back, though Le Havre edges out slightly with better defensive stats.
For bettors seeking value, look toward Auxerre's victory being undervalued at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, as well as 3.0 with LeoVegas, offering a significant edge based on the model's 37% probability of an away win. With the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1, a tight game with limited goals is anticipated, making a 1-1 draw seem the most plausible outcome, with the over/under 2.5 goals market essentially a coin flip at 50%.
Le HavreForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #4xP/match #12Points #18
Key players
- Michael Amir Junior RichardsonCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
- Rayan FofanaFxG 0.91 · xT 0.02
- Rassoul Kader NdiayeCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
AuxerreForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #17xP/match #8Points #16
Key players
- Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Cameron Desmond ArcherFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
- Lamine SyRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Final score
1 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Le Havre 36% · Draw 27% · Auxerre 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AuxerreBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,53fair 11,29-16 %
HitMatchresultat - Le HavreBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,06fair 10,17-31 %
MissMatch prediction: Le Havre – Auxerre
Predicted score matrix
Auxerre →
Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–18.6%
0–25.8%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–09.1%
1–112.7%
1–28.0%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.5%
2–25.5%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.9%
3–22.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,37–1,30
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.01EV+0%
Over 2,550%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Auxerre or draw (X2)62%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Cameron Desmond Archer to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Mbwana Ally Samatta to score22%
- Ahmed Touba to be booked17%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Auxerre37% probability@3.21PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Auxerre37% probability@3.05LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Auxerre37% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Le Havre | X | 2 · Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.28 | 3.40 | EV+ 11% 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.45 | EV+ 13% 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.28 | 3.40 | EV+ 11% 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.46 | EV+ 19% 3.21 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1-4 %
43 %38 %
2.42 → 2.32
X+2 %
31 %26 %
3.39 → 3.46
2+11 %
34 %29 %
2.89 → 3.21
Over 2,50 %
54 %49 %
1.87 → 1.88
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLe Havre 3Draw 1Auxerre 0
Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Auxerre have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Le Havre
Auxerre
Le Havre (4–8)
Auxerre (8–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Le Havre
Auxerre
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Le Havre
Auxerre
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 6 |
| xPoints | 7.5 | 8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.77 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 348 | 304 |
| Passes against per match | 362 | 414 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.1 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 7.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| Other | Le Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre) | Mamadou Diop (Auxerre) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 24 |
| Save % | 83% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Le Havre vs Auxerre according to our model?
The model gives Auxerre a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Le Havre 36%, draw 27%, Auxerre 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for Le Havre and 1.30 for Auxerre, 2.67 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Le Havre or draw (1X) 63%, Auxerre or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.