01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Monaco or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Ligue 1Stade du Moustoir, Lorient11°0,1 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
LorientCounter-attacks & crosses1–0
MonacoLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Monaco (44%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.92 (+5 %)
Lorient vs Monaco · Ligue 1
1 · Lorient 28%X 29%44% Monaco · 2
28%
29%
44%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lorient vs Monaco (Ligue 1, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Lorient win 28%, draw 29%, Monaco win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Lorient 1.09, Monaco 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Lorient or draw 56%, Monaco or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lorient – Monaco
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Despite Lorient's surprising head-to-head advantage over Monaco since 2022, having won both matches, the sample size is too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. The visitors come in with a stronger league position and an unbeaten streak in their last six matches. This paints a picture where Monaco's sustained performance edge places them as the more likely winners.
The probability models back this up, giving Monaco a 44% chance of securing victory, compared to Lorient's 28%. The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 13%, indicates a balanced game, but the subsequent likelihoods favor Monaco: a 0-1 win at 11% and a 1-2 victory at 9%. These figures suggest that while the hosts might put up a fight, Monaco's slightly superior xG of 1.2 per match could tip the scales.
In terms of style, Lorient's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses will clash with Monaco's low defense and direct play. The expected goals for Lorient (1.09) and Monaco (1.39) further suggest a match that might be tighter than it appears, with defensive setups potentially curbing goal-scoring opportunities. The probability of both teams scoring is set at an even 50%, which supports this analysis of a closely contested game.
For those seeking value in the betting markets, there is a notable edge in the under 2.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Nordicbet, and LeoVegas offering odds of 1.86 and 1.85 respectively, this represents a 2% edge according to the model, which rates the probability of under 2.5 goals at 55%. This statistical edge makes the under a compelling option, emphasizing a more defensive, closely fought affair.
LorientForm LWDLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #13xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Arthur Ebong AvomCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.27
- Montassar Omar TalbiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
- Kan Guy Arsène KouassiLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
MonacoForm WWDWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #15xP/match #9Points #1
Key players
- Vanderson de Oliveira CamposRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
- Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.02
- Eric DierCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lorient 28% · Draw 29% · Monaco 44%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LorientBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,10fair 16,66-27 %
MissMatchresultat - MonacoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,93fair 10,38-33 %
MissMatch prediction: Lorient – Monaco
Predicted score matrix
Monaco →
Lorient →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–111.3%
0–28.1%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–08.8%
1–113.1%
1–28.8%
1–34.1%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.0%
2–16.9%
2–24.8%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.5%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,09–1,39
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.92EV+4%
Over 2,545%
@1.97
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Monaco or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Paris Josua Brunner to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Noah Mbamba-Muanda to score30%
- Noah Cadiou to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Lorient28% probability@3.78PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.89BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lorient | X | 2 · Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 3.65 | 3.35 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.60 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 3.65 | 3.35 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 3.78 | 3.45 | 2.09 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+12 %
29 %24 %
3.39 → 3.78
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.42 → 3.45
2-2 %
48 %43 %
2.14 → 2.09
Over 2,5+7 %
52 %47 %
1.85 → 1.97
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLorient 2Draw 0Monaco 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lorient
Monaco
Lorient (6–6)
Monaco (10–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lorient
Monaco
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lorient
Monaco
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 14 |
| xPoints | 7.5 | 8 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 417 |
| Passes against per match | 501 | 469 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 27.3 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 2.5 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Other | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Yvon Mvogo (Lorient) | Lukas Hradecky (Monaco) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 21 |
| Save % | 74% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lorient vs Monaco according to our model?
The model gives Monaco a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lorient 28%, draw 29%, Monaco 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lorient vs Monaco?
The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Lorient and 1.39 for Monaco, 2.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lorient or draw (1X) 56%, Monaco or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.