01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lyon to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Groupama Stadium, Lyon11°0,5 mm14 km/h
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LyonPossession control2–1
NiceBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Lyon (62%)
Lyon vs Nice · Ligue 1
1 · Lyon 62%X 23%14% Nice · 2
62%
23%
14%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lyon vs Nice (Ligue 1, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Lyon win 62%, draw 23%, Nice win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Lyon 2.03, Nice 0.88. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Lyon or draw 86%, Nice or draw 38%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lyon – Nice
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Lyon's approach to possession control stands out as a key factor in their upcoming match against Nice. With a commanding home win rate of 68% across their all-time home matches (37 played), the hosts seem primed to dictate proceedings. Their tactical patience often allows them to break down visiting teams, and against a Nice side that balances physicality with a more reactive strategy, Lyon's style may prove decisive.
The numbers further bolster Lyon's case. They are favored with a 62% probability according to the model, and their expected goals of 2.03 suggest a strong offensive output. Nice, on the other hand, struggle to generate much threat, averaging just 0.9 xG per match. This disparity extends to the head-to-head encounters, albeit a small sample, where Lyon has triumphed in three out of four matches since 2022.
Nice's physical game might create friction, but it's often not enough to unsettle a Lyon side adept at controlling the tempo. The home side's edge in both points (11 vs. 8) and expected points (10.3 vs. 6.6) further signifies their superiority. While Nice's defensive metrics show them conceding 1.3 xGA per game, Lyon's defense is tighter with just 1.0 xGA, making it difficult for Nice to exploit any gaps.
As for the betting landscape, the most likely scorelines are 2-0 and 1-0, both at 11%, with a slight nod towards a total over 2.5 goals at 56%. A Lyon win offers value at odds of 1.7 with LeoVegas, where the model suggests a 6% edge. This makes a home victory look particularly appealing for bettors seeking positive expected value. In this clash, Lyon appears set to extend their dominance, with a 2-0 scoreline looking like a plausible outcome.
LyonForm DWDWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #12xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Corentin TolissoLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
- Ernest NuamahRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
- Moussa NiakhatéCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
NiceForm LDLWW
League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #11xP/match #16Points #9
Key players
- Jonathan ClaussRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.31
- Youssouf NdayishimiyeCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Mohamed AbdelmonemCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lyon 62% · Draw 23% · Nice 14%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LyonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,21fair 5,52-6 %
MissMatchresultat - NiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,34fair 29,12-61 %
MissMatch prediction: Lyon – Nice
Predicted score matrix
Nice →
Lyon →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–14.5%
0–22.1%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.8%
1–110.0%
1–24.3%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.2%
2–19.9%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.6%
3–16.7%
3–22.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–06.1%
4+–15.4%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,03–0,88
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.22
Over 2,556%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lyon to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Mads Bidstrup to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Mads Bidstrup to score24%
- Axel Laurent Angel Lambert Witsel to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lyon62% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Lyon62% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Lyon62% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lyon | X | 2 · Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 15% 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 17% 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 15% 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 17% 1.88 | 3.95 | 3.97 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Nice win since 9 October — the odds have shortened from 4.86 to 3.97 (−18%).
1+15 %
59 %49 %
1.63 → 1.88
X-4 %
29 %19 %
4.12 → 3.95
2-18 %
27 %17 %
4.86 → 3.97
Over 2,5+3 %
62 %52 %
1.66 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLyon 3Draw 0Nice 1
Goals: 10–4 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Lyon win 68% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lyon
Nice
Lyon (11–4)
Nice (5–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lyon
Nice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lyon
Nice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 8 |
| xPoints | 10.3 | 6.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| Playing style | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 413 | 506 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 397 |
| Switches of play per match | 36.9 | 33.3 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| Other | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Dominik Greif (Lyon) | Yehvann Diouf (Nice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 19 |
| Save % | 82% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 72% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lyon vs Nice according to our model?
The model gives Lyon a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyon 62%, draw 23%, Nice 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lyon vs Nice?
The model expects 2.03 goals (xG) for Lyon and 0.88 for Nice, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lyon or draw (1X) 86%, Nice or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.