Troyes vs Lens: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Ligue 117 October 2026Stade de l'Aube, Troyes12°3,6 mm21 km/h

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TroyesPossession & high press

1–3

LensPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Lens (51%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.78 (+22 %)

1 · Troyes 24%X 25%51% Lens · 2

24%

25%

51%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Troyes vs Lens (Ligue 1, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Troyes win 24%, draw 25%, Lens win 51%. Expected goals (xG): Troyes 1.05, Lens 1.60. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Troyes or draw 49%, Lens or draw 76%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Troyes – Lens

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Lens carries a 51% win probability into their clash against Troyes, who come into this match on the back of four consecutive losses. With the visitors' stronger form and possession control, they are favored to take the upper hand. Troyes' current struggles are reflected in the numbers; they've managed only 4 points compared to Lens' 7. The expected goals (xG) provide further evidence, with the visitors holding a significant edge at 1.60 compared to the home side's 1.05.

The most likely outcomes suggest a tight match. The models point to a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline, closely followed by a 0-1 victory for Lens. Both teams to score is rated at 52%, indicating a closely contested affair. However, the damp weather with 3.6 mm of rain could suppress goals, which aligns with the 49% probability for over 2.5 goals.

While goals might be at a premium, there is a notable edge in betting on under 2.5 goals. Betsafe offers odds of 2.41 with a 22% edge according to the model. An even sharper angle, for those drawn to higher risk, is under 1.5 goals with a 27% edge at odds of 4.97 via Betsafe or Nordicbet.

Troyes

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #5xP/match #15Points #17

Key players

Adrien MonfrayCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Antoine MilleRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.24
Lucas MaronnierRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.32

Lens

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #3xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Ismaelo GaniouCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 0.55 · xT 0.31
Souleymane SagnanCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08

Final score

1 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Troyes 24% · Draw 25% · Lens 51%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LensBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,85fair 7,94-39 %

Hit

Matchresultat - TroyesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,41fair 18,17-48 %

Miss

Match prediction: Troyes – Lens

Predicted score matrix

Lens →

Troyes →

0–07.5%

0–111.0%

0–29.0%

0–34.8%

0–4+2.7%

1–07.1%

1–112.2%

1–29.5%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–03.9%

2–16.2%

2–25.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.5%

3–01.4%

3–12.2%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,05–1,60

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.36EV+20%

Over 2,549%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lens to win51%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lens to win51%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Abdallah Dipo Sima to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Abdallah Dipo Sima to score30%
Mouhamed Diop to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.526% probability@4.78BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
Under 1.526% probability@4.78NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
Under 1.526% probability@4.70LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Troyes	X	2 · Lens
Betsafe	3.65	3.70	1.92
LeoVegas	3.75	3.85	1.92
Nordicbet	3.65	3.70	1.92
Pinnacle	3.95	3.92	1.90

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

1-2 %

27 %22 %

4.04 → 3.95

X-2 %

27 %22 %

4.02 → 3.92

2+3 %

54 %49 %

1.84 → 1.90

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Troyes have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Troyes

Lens

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Troyes (4–13)

Lens (11–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Troyes

Lens

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Troyes

Lens

The teams in numbers

Performance	Troyes	Lens
Points	4	7
xPoints	6.9	8.6
xG per match	1.2	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.29

Playing style	Troyes	Lens
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.29
Field tilt	0.54	0.54
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	33	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.2
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.76
Passes per match	298	418
Passes against per match	541	404
Switches of play per match	29.8	32.8
Long balls per match	33	34

Set pieces	Troyes	Lens
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	7.4	7
Corners against per match	1.9	3.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.82	0.47

Other	Troyes	Lens
Throw-in control	0.66	0.73

The goalkeepers	Patrick Thomas Beach (Troyes)	Robin Risser (Lens)
Saves	16	21
Save %	55%	70%
xG prevented	39%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Troyes

Fixtures, form & tips

Lens

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Troyes vs Lens according to our model?

The model gives Lens a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Troyes 24%, draw 25%, Lens 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Troyes vs Lens?

The model expects 1.05 goals (xG) for Troyes and 1.60 for Lens, 2.64 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Troyes or draw (1X) 49%, Lens or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.